Tuesday, December 10, 2002

All right, I've narrowed down the list to 10 candidates based on their season numbers. Now it's time to look at their superlatives. I'm going to go up from the bottom of my rankings based on their season stats. If there's a reason to move them up or down, I'll do so accordingly. We'll look at how they performed in their three biggest games of the season, to see how they played when the spotlight was birghtest, and their talent was most needed. Let's start with yesterday's crop of defensive players: Henderson and Newman.


Terrance Newman
9/21 USC 4 tckls, 0 kick returns,
10/5 Colorado 2 tckls, 1-55 kick returns,
10/19 Texas 5 tckls, 2-54 kick returns, 1 INT

Newman was a non-factor in the win over USC, had a good game in the loss to Colorado, and a great game in the loss to Texas. But he doesn't have any game-breaking plays in the most important games. His candidacy dies right here.

EJ Henderson
9/14 FSU 11 tckls, 1 FF
10/5 WVU 15 tckls, 3 TFL, 2 sacks
11/9 State 16 tckls, 2 TFL

Even in their biggest loss, Henderson was all over the field. Jesus, this guy was a one-man wrecking crew. What's impressive is his consistency, every one of his games has a box score like this. It' not like he turned it up a notch for a big games, he was already turned all the way up for every game. I feel better about putting him ahead of Newman now.

Now, let's look at the running backs.

Quentin Griffin
9/7 Bama 9 att, 3 yards
11/9 A&M 23 att, 141 yards, 1 TD reception
12/7 Colorado 29 att, 188 yds, 2 TD, 4 catches, 28 yds

Bonus points for rushing for 248 versus Texas. He topped 100 yards in 11 of OU's 13 games, but he didn't show up against Bama, and he rushed for 102 against Okie State (mainly because they were busy throwing the ball). Griffin came to play almost every week, and he also has the dual threat of catching the ball out of the backfield. I'd be inclined to move him up for his big game performances, even with the Bama debacle. He was also clearly OU's best offensive weapon all year.

Chris Brown
8/31 CSU 24 att, 91 yds, 1 TD
10/5 KSU 26 att, 167 yds
11/2 OU 25 att, 103 yds

Oh yeah, he went for 44 against USC, and sat out the Big 12 championship with an injury. He had a great stretch in October, when he lit up KSU, UCLA, and particularly Kansas (to the tune of 309). But this is a classic example of not showing up for the big game. He didn't reach the 2000 yard plateau due to his injury, and he didn't have his best games when his team needed him most. Sorry, chris, you're off the list.

Willis McGahee
9/7 UF 24 att, 204 yds
10/12 FSU 26 att, 95 yds, 1 TD, 3 catches, 78 yds
12/7 VT 39 att, 205 yds, 6 TD

Holy crap. When it mattered, McGahee came to play. The FSU game was the only time he didn't crack 100 yards, but he more than made up for it with his receiving in that game. Week in, week out, McGahee was the guy Miami counted on to bail them out of trouble. I know people rate him down because he's asophomore, but that's stupid. It matters what you do this year, regardless of class, and McGahee was the biggest big game player of the year. That counts for a lot.

Larry Johnson
9/28 Iowa 18 att, 68 yds, 1 TD, 6 cat, 93 yds, 1 TD
10/26 OSU 16 att, 66 yds, 6 cat, 32 yds
11/9 UVa 31 att, 188 yds, 1 TD, 3 cat, 23 yds

There's also the Michigan game, when he failed to rush for 100 yards, but I wanted to show he did have a good game in a game that mattered, though he was subpar in all of the Nittany Lions' losses. Before you say he didn't carry the ball, he only carried the ball 20 times in four of PSU's 12 games. That makes the 2000 yards more impressive, but realize he did have the extra game to reach the milestone. He actually played well in the Iowa game as a receiver, though he was dismal carrying the ball. They abandoned the run because LJ was ineffective. There's no other way to say it about OSU, he laid an egg. Same with Michigan. However, he did put together a great game against both UVa and Nebraska. But LJ topped 200 yards four times, against Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, and MSU. Illinois is okay, but those other three have some of the worst defenses in all of college football. Color me not impressed.

I keep coming back to the 2000 yards and the 8 yards per carry. that's massive. And LJ certainly had a fantastic season. But even with those milestones, he did not help his team in the biggest games, and ran up yards against the worst teams on the schedule. If McGahee hadn't have been so great in his big games, I'd let it slide, but McGahee's excellence when it mattered most forced me to rate him higher. It's not just LJ's performance in the big games, or McGahee's in his. It's the combination of those factors that changes my rankings of the backs to:

McGahee
LJ
Griffin
Brown

Now the QB's get the close look.

Jason Gesser
9/14 OSU 25-44, 247 yds, 1 TD-2 INT
10/5 USC 23-44, 315 yds, 2-1
12/7 UCLA 15-24, 247 yds, 2-2

Of his 11 picks on the year, 5 came in those three games. That's not good. However, he played that UCLA game on one leg, and he probably single-handedly beat USC. The Ohio state game stands out at his real bad game, but as bad games go, it's pretty damn good. And not doing great when everyone in the stadium knows you have to throw, including the best best defense on the country on the other side of the ball, is no shame. Gesser gets a slight nudge, particularly for his guts in the UCLA game.

Carson Palmer
9/21 KSU 18-46, 186 yds, 1-0
10/5 WSU 32-50, 381 yds, 2-1
11/30 ND 32-46, 425 yds, 4-2

It's hard picking out the three biggest games with USC's schedule. Palmer and Gesser are incredibly close, and the Pac-10 media didn't even try to seperate them, naming them co-MVP's. That K-State game is downright awful, but Palmer was terrific in his showdown with Gesser. And he was unbelievable against Notre Dame. Palmer just got better and better as the year went on, much like his team. And even in his bad game againgt KSU, he didn't turn the ball over. He guided his team through the toughest schedule in the land to a co-title and a trip to the Orange Bowl. He gets lots of bonus for that, enough in my eyes to sperate him from Gesser, but not by much.

Ken Dorsey
9/7 UF 16-32, 202 yds, 4-3
10/12 FSU 20-45, 362 yds, 2-2
12/7 VT 12-20, 300 yds. 2-1

Dorsey is also in the pack, but we can compare him directly with McGahee. Yes, he's only got one career loss as a starter, but why do we single out the quarterback for that number? McGahee's undefeated as a starter. And look at the big games. He's not a 50% passer in those games. He throws tons of picks. Go back and look at McGahee. They won those games not quite in spite of Dorsey, but because of McGahee. If we're going to to rate Dorsey higher because of his big game acumne, we have to look at how he actually played in those games. And the answer is: not that well. Certainly not Heisman level. OK, he was outstanding in the VT game, but not Palmer verus Notre Dame. And he didn't do it alone. I just can't rate him higher because of his superlatives because when looking at those big games, Dorsey didn't produce. It was McGahee.

Brad Banks
9/14 ISU 12-21, 178 yds, 2-0, 9 rush, 11 yds
9/28 PSU 18-30, 261 yds, 4-2, 8 rush, 42 yds
10/26 Mich 18-29, 222 yds, 3-0, 7 rush, 53 yds

He wasn't bad in the ISU game, but he didn't take it over, Seneca Wallace did. He did take over the Penn State and Michigan games. He didn't have his best games in his biggest games, but he played very well. Good enough to turn a 4-7 Iowa team into an 11-1 Big Ten champ, who went undefeated in conference play. Half of his season's INT's came against Penn State, but he threw 4 TD's in the game, more than making up for it. and it just points out how amazing only four picks on the whole year is. There's no reason to drop him for the big game performances, but it certainly isn't the reason he's the best QB.

So it comes down to McGahee and Banks. While McGahee has those huge games, Banks has the whole season. Look at the numbers again. 9.2 yards per attempt. 25 TD's and 4 INT's. 387 yards rushing with a 5.7 yard average, almost as high as McGahee's. McGahee's big games brings him to the top of the ballot, but it doesn't quite overcome the full resume of Banks. You could justify either candidacy if you argued with yourself enough, but I'm going to go with Banks because of his overall numbers, Iowa's remarkable turnaround, and the fact he still played well in those big games, though not as well as McGahee. My final ballot:

1 Banks
2 McGahee
3 Johnson
4 Palmer
5 Henderson

Monday, December 09, 2002

Now comes the tough part, comparing across position. Newman is the best athlete, Henderson was probably the best all-around, and Suggs was just a pass rushing machine. How do you rate them?

Well, Kansas State led the nation in scoring defense, while Arizona State was pretty bad outside of Suggs. Is it fair to punish a guy because his teammates weren't any good? In a way, yes. Defensive players can only be judged based on the system they are playing in. Simply put, Suggs was the only difference maker the Sun Devils had. Meanwhile, Newman stood out among a bunch of stellar players. That's tough to do.

Maryland was 10th in scoring defense. So Henderson made a large impact as well on a great defensive team. And though he didn't return kicks, he was an impact player on special teams. It's a judgement call, but since I live in Maryland and watch Henderson every week, I'm going with him.

That's right, after all of this I'm chucking logic out. I'll include Henderson and Newman among our finalists of the BartCopSports Heisman. He'll join our top QB's (Banks, Dorsey, Plamer, Gesser) and top RB's (LJ, McGahee, Brown, Griffin).

In part three, I'll look at their superlatives and come up with my final ballot.
Finally, we get into defensive backs. Here's the chart of the best in the nation:

Tckls TFL Sack INT FF-FR
Doss Ohio St 98 4.5 0 1 1-0
Newman KSU 44 2.5 0 5 1-0
Holt NCSU 91 1 1 3 3-1
Polamalu USC 68 9 3 1 3-0

Let's also award some special teams bonus points. Newman returned 22 punts for 358 yards and 2 TD, and 10 kicks for 324 yards and 1 TD. So not only was he a fantastic cover corner, he netted his team about 700 yards on special teams. Holt didn't return kicks, he blocked them. Three to be precise.

I'm a charter member of the Mike Doss fan club, but he wasn't the best defensive back this year. Polamalu was more of a destructive force for USC, but Newman was clearly the biggest difference maker.

It's funny, KSU has two of the most underrated players in the country: Sproles and Newman. Both desrve some mention among the best players in the nation.


This leads us into the large skill-set group of linebackers. Each team asks it's linebacks to do something difference, so the stats can be misleadng just by virtue of the schemes. But let's look at the numbers anyway.

Tckls TFL Sack INT FF-FR
Mitchell OU 119 19 3 0 3-0
Daniels Bama 107 9 3 0 1-0
James LSU 129 9.5 2 1 1-0
Henderson Mary 163 15.5 6.5 2 2-0

Honestly, I don't care what kind of scheme you're in, 163 tackles is obscene. Not only does he have tackles in bulk, he gets in opposition backfields and creates turnovers. He's got a leg up on the competition in every category. He'll settle for the Butkus.
Now let's enter into the defensive players who have a claim for best defensive player. Let's start from the line and work to the secondary.

Tckls TFL Sack INT FF-FR
Haynes PSU 75 22 14.5 0 7-0
Redding Texas 66 20 7.5 0 3-2
Pollack UGa 90 19 2.5 0 1-0
Suggs ASU 69 29.5 22 1 6-0
Long WSU 47 20.5 13 0 0-0

These are the best linemen in the nation. Who jumps out at you? Terrell Suggs has been awesome. 22 sacks? Six forced fumbles? and how does a lineman get an interception? Haynes also gets some serious points, while Pollack is probably the most dynamic player on this list. But look at it. Suggs is the best defensive end, no question.
What do these numbers tell you?

They tell me it's been a subpar year for wide receivers, though I'm willing to make an exception for Rashaun woods solely for his game against Oklahoma. I'm just going to jump over the receivers and go straight to defensive players. However, let's have a quick pitstop for the offensive linemen.

An offensive linemen is never going to win the Heisman. Period. It's a thankless job, and it's almost impossible to objectively rate them. So let's just give a nod to the cream of this year's crop:

Brett Romberg (Miami)
Jordan Gross (Utah)
Eric Steinbach (Iowa)

It's a tough job, but the lack of recognition goes with the territory.
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