Saturday, July 19, 2003

Stage 13--Ullrich again!

Is Jan Ullrich the strongest cyclist in the Tour? He cleary has been over the last two days. Carlos Sastre of CSC picked up the stage win in the first of four days in the Pyrenees, but the biggest news was that Jan Ullrich launched a counter attack in the final two kilometers. Although we thought Ullrich would suffer in the mountains, he was awesome. Armstrong looked in great difficulty, falling behind Ullrich, Vino, Basso, and Zubledia, but surged in the final 500 meters to cut Ullrich's lead to 7 seconds. Ullrich did pick up a 12 second time bonus, narrowing the overall margin to 15 seconds. In other words, Lance still has the yellow jersey, but it's all even now.



The good news for Lance is that he put 10 seconds on Vinokourov, leaving him at 61 seconds down. Tyler Hamilton also lost time and is now over 4 minutes back. So, he's not going to win the race, but he can still fight for a podium spot.

What's going on here? We keep saying that Armstrong has things under control. Can he win if he continues to ride defensively? That's unlikely with Vinokourov and Ullrich so close and so able to take time from him. We also keep wondering when Armstrong will go on the offensive. It seems like each day he just doesn't feel well enough to be on top of his game. Now he's saying he was so dehydrated in the time trial that he lost over 10 pounds and he still hasn't fully recovered. Well, that may explain why he's lost his edge, but even the best of excuses isn't going to help him win a bike race. Still, his post-race interview suggests confidence and alacrity for the upcoming stages.

The team support of USPS has been great. Heras did pop today, but they had great tactics in putting Rubiera in the breakaway so he could join Lance from the front once the elite climbers were on the final climb. Manuel Beltran earned his paycheck today, as he set a great pace on the first climb and even caught the group again after being dropped.

How to win? If any one of the top three have a really bad day, that would probably eliminate one. In the mountains we've seen them separate by a few seconds here & there, but that's never going to be decisive. I get the feeling that this race is going to be won when one of them has a great day and beats the field by a couple minutes. There are three more opportunities before the last time trial. Psychological edges: Ullrich has all the momentum now. Armstrong's glass is either half-full or half-empty. Either he's slowly being devoured, or he's bound to finally have a problem-free day in which to assert himself.

Other news...
Despite the stage win, CSC only gained a few seconds over Banesto in the team competition, leaving them separated by 2:16. Both gained on USPS and Euskaltel, so this is definitely a tight two team race now.

The big breakaway meant that most of the sprinters were shut out of the intermediate sprint points, but Thor Hushovd (easily the best name in the race!) was in the breakaway. He grabbed 12 points to move into third place. He now trails Cooke by 24 points.

If anyone is going to challenge Virenque in the King of the Mountains race, tomorrow is the day to do it. There are two category two climbs and 4 category one climbs. While the big finish on Monday's stage seems the perfect place for the contenders to decide the yellow jersey, there will probably be attacks among them Sunday to see if anyone does have a bad day.

Friday, July 18, 2003

The Race of Truth

Bob Roll was sort of right. On Friday morning he stepped away from his prediction, saying he didn't know what to predict. That was all the karma Ullrich needed. (FYI Roll was still moving his hands a lot when he said it.)

Here's what the Race of Truth has told us...

1) Jan Ullrich is an absolute beast. I have never seen him ride as well as he did in this time trial. And I'm really happy for him because it's been a while since he scored a big win.
2) Armstrong is vulnerable, as the riders & pundits keep saying, but the problem for his rivals is that he's not consistantly vulnerable to the same one of them.
3) Iban Mayo isn't going to win, but he & Zubledia will attack like mad in the next week.
4) USPS's win in the team time trial was HUGE! So was the Beltran-led attack at the foot of Alpe d' Huez--that's when they dropped Ullrich. That's the difference for the yellow jersey.
5) As Stephen "TD" Baker pointed out, Vinokourov is the real big winner today. He lost only 30 seconds to Armstrong.
6) Denis Menchov is now 10 minutes in the lead for the white jersey.

Other comments...

This result is a mixed bag for Armstrong. We're now to the point at which the leader can make a short list of riders to eliminate. Right now, that list is down to two men--Ullrich & Vinokourov. These are the men Armstrong will not let out of his sights (unless he's in front of them). When the day started the list was about 6 guys and Lance's lead was 21 seconds, not 34. On the bottom line, it was a good day.

The next four days will be so much fun as we get to see this race unfold in the steep mountains of the Pyrenees. Be sure to tune in. This is the most exciting Tour in about a decade.

Also, before we get to the big climbs on Saturday there are two intermediate sprints for O'Grady, McEwen, and Cooke to fight over.

One more note on the time trial, CSC vaulted over Banesto in the team race because, as we all know, Spaniard climbers can't ride a time trial to save their lives. Of course, they'll probably get it back tomorrow.
Stage 12

Bob Roll was right. What were the odds? Ullrich didn't just win the ITT, he absolutely destroyed the field. He beat Armstrong by 1:36, and Armstrong posted a good minute between himself and the field (except Vinokourov). As Jason predicted, the field is officially blown apart. Only six riders are within 5 minutes (I'm giving Mancebo the second, okay?) of the lead. But even bigger, two are still within one minute: Ullrich and Vino.

Thos are the two big winners of the day. Yes, Ullrich won a stage and it was just like old times. Armstrong calls him the biggest threat, but he has consistently beaten Ullrich on every climb of the race. He's got to be worried about the German, but he also has to be confident that he can put him away in the mountains. But Vionkourov? He's not supposed to be able to time trial like this. He's a climber by trade, and after today, he was supposed to be three or four minutes out, like the duo from Euskatel. But he's still within one minute. Armstrong might be publicly talking about Ullrich, but I'm thinking in private, the Posties are worried about Vino.

Telekom is a strong team. Stronger than Bianchi. And Vinokourov might not be a "name," but he's been a top-tier rider for quite some time. He's been more of a threat over the past two years than Ullrich. It's amazing how quickly this race keeps changing. But Armstrong really needed to put his rivals away today, and he didn't. They talk about Ullrich, but they better be concerned about Vinokourov.

Thursday, July 17, 2003

Taking Stock After Stage 11
At the midpoint of the Tour and on the day before the race of truth we should examine the big races within the Tour.

Best Team Time

In the last two stages this has been turned upside down. Euskaltel had the lead, followed by USPS, after stage 9. Successful breakaways–especially the 21 minute breakaway in stage 10--in the last two stages have changed things.
1 Banesto in 145h 03' 28"
2 CSC at 00' 15"
3 Euskaltel at 11' 24"
4 USPS at 15' 35"
5 Cofidis at 21' 04"

It’s nice to see Cofidis finally do something good, but they ain’t goin’ nowhere. USPS and Euskaltel will both do great in the Pyrenees, but CSC and Banesto both have some very good climbers. They’ll lose time, but not 6-7 minutes a day. It’s going to be very tough for anyone to catch CSC or Banesto. And once we get out of the mountains, CSC and Banesto will be able to send riders into breakaways again. This should be a great race, and the lead should change a time or two.

Green Jersey

In the last two stages Zabel has been beaten by both McEwen and Cooke in the bunch finish. He still doesn’t bother to get any points in the intermediate sprints. In other words, Zabel is cooked. Unless he magically wins two stages, he isn’t going to finish better than 4th. O’Grady will pass him by taking points any way he can get them, and McEwen and Cooke are going to go head to head every day to make this a great two man race.

White Jersey

Denis Menchov (Banesto) has a 6 minute lead over Sylvain Chavanel (Brioches). He’s got two teammates in 3rd & 4th, so they’ll help him maintain his lead in the mountains. A 6 minute lead is a lot, the young riders frequently fizzle out in the last week. I’m not counting on a Brioches rider winning anything, though.

King of the Mountains
Virenque has a big lead after really just one huge day of work. But as I said before, there are still 11 category 1 or higher climbs remaining. So a rider far out–like Christophe Moreau, Ivan Parra, or Jorg Jaksche could decide to go for the big points. All three of these have already scored a bunch of points, and all three are on teams with no yellow jersey contender, so they may be willing to put their stock in the dots.

Yellow
Hey, we’ve got a good race here. Armstrong has been saying for days that he’s got to come up big on Friday’s time trial, and I expect he will. I said before that after the Alps we’d have a long list of contenders, but it would be down to about 5 after the first time trial. Here are all the men within 4 minutes now.

1 ARMSTRONG Lance USA USP in 49h 16' 37"
2 VINOKOUROV Alexandre KAZ TEL at 00' 21"
3 MAYO Iban ESP EUS at 01' 02"
4 MANCEBO Francisco ESP BAN at 01' 37"
5 HAMILTON Tyler USA CSC at 01' 52"
6 ULLRICH Jan GER TBI at 02' 10"
7 BASSO Ivan ITA FAS at 02' 25"
8 HERAS Roberto ESP USP at 02' 28"
9 ZUBELDIA Haimar ESP EUS at 03' 25"
10 MENCHOV Denis RUS BAN at 03' 45"

Forget about Heras–he’s riding for Lance. As good as Menchov & Zubledia are, I seriously doubt they’ll be within 3 minutes when this stage is done–5 is more likely. Looking back to last year, only Tyler Hamilton managed to finish within 2 minutes of Armstrong on either time trial. I think Mancebo and Basso will lose crucial time tomorrow, leaving us with these men in the top 5: Armstrong, Vino, Mayo, Hamilton, and Ullrich, but I don’t think any will be within 90 seconds of Lance. Bob Roll of OLN is predicting that Ullrich will win the stage, so I’m convinced he’ll lose time to Armstrong.
And if someone gets a puncture, all bets are off.




Stage 11

A bizarre stage. In a Tour full of scitement and day-in, day-out battles, we had our second straight uneventful racing day. Stage 10, the rest day, and now Stage 11 almost gave the entire field a nice three day wait. The peleton half-heartedly chased down the breakaway group, which completely splintered as each rider persued their own agenda instead of working together. And the one guy who wanted to work with other riders, Stuart O'Grady, found no one willing to help. Why help the one guy who is actually in contention for the Green jersey?

So Pecha gets a rare flat stage win for the Spanish. O'Grady picks up a net of about 12 points on Cooke and at least gets himself on the Points leaderboard, he's now one behind Zabel. It's become a race among Aussies for the Green, with Cooke and McEwen well out in front, but Zabel, Hushovd, and O'Grady still within striking distance. But the quest for Green goes on hold for awhile, and we focus again on the quest for the maillot jaune.

Stage 15 still looms large, with a Cat-1 climb and two HC climbs. More and more, it looks like the race will be won then. Just look at the hell which the Tour will put riders through on Monday:



But tommorrow's stage is one of the biggest before then: the Time Trial. There is no place for riders to hide, they need to ride the road just as fast as Lance, with no peleton to help. Just you and your bike (and the trailing team car). Armstrong desperately needs to put his foot down and assert his authority. He needs to put some distance between himself and his closest challengers. If he doesn't, expect a lot of attacks in the Pyranees. It's do or die time for Lance.

Tuesday, July 15, 2003

Stage 10

The rest day came a day early. A bunch of nobodies went on a long break and nobody bothered to reel them in. The pelton lost by over 20 minutes, but it didn't matter since all of the leaders hung back. The only real news of the day was that Cooke won the peleton sprint to finish ninth, but ahead of Mcwen and Zabel. And Garzelli abandoned. So we enter the halfway point, let's run through the teams. But first, a chart...

tdf.xls

Looking at the leaders of each team gives you an idea of how they are doing.

AG2R (Botchorov - 33rd- 15:15 out)
Hey, they had the white jersey for a day! They aren't seriously contending for any calssification, and their top rider is in 33rd place. They could drop out of the Tour tommorrow and no one would notice.

Alessio (Caucchioli - 15th- 5:17 out)
They went in riding for DuFaux, but he's over 10 minutes out. Caucchioli is now their best chance. They have no honrs, nor are they a threat to win one. I wouldn't call their Tour a total disaster thus far, but it hasn't been good.

Banesto (Mancebo -4th- 1:37 out)
They've got three of the top four in the youth standings, and they have Mancebo knocking on the Armstrong's door. Mancebo hasn't really shown he can attack Armstrong, but he has shown that he won't get dropped on the tough climbs. The Posties aren't really moving to neutralize him, but he's a threat by virtue of hanging around. If he can continue to just ride with Armstrong in the Pyranees, he just needs one big break to win the whole thing.

Brioches de Boulangere (Rous- 22nd- 8:45 out)
They haven't embarrassed themselves. That's all we ask from Brioches.

Credit Agricole (Moreau -12th- 4:04 out)
I thought Moreau would ride for the King of the Mountains, but he's back in 9th. They have two sprinters in the top six in Points, but neither O'Grady or Hushovd looks like a threat to win it. As it's quickly becoming a two-man race. So they are making a nice appearnce in every classification, but they aren't threatening to win anything. Another disappointing year, but at least its better than 2002.

Cofidis (Millar- 19th- 7:15 out)
Millar was never going to win anything, he's about where he should be in the GC. This is just a team that isn't nearly as good as they think they are. Though Lelli has had an outstanding Tour so far, he deserves to be riding for someone who could actually win.

CSC (Hamilton -5th- 1:52 out)
What can you say about Hamilton? If he hadn't broken his collarbone, he might be winning this race. He's riding terrific even with the injury. Unnoticed in the brillaint Tour he's having is the mediocre Tour Sastre is having. This was probably his last chance to establish himself as a serious contender. Now he's a domestique for a guy with a broken clavicle. The team is right now in 1st because of Piil's ride, but that won't last.

Jean Delatour (LeFevre - 37th- 18:03 out)
OK, so they won't win the yellow. And Nazon is a longshot to win the Green. But they are having a pretty decent Tour. They even had a day in yellow. That's pretty much going to be the highlight.

Euskatel (Mayo -3rd- 1:02 out)
They went in looking to win a mountain stage, wreak some havoc, make a nice name for themselves. Instead, they are now thinking that they can win this thing. Mayo has a real chance to win the Yellow. We know they can climb, so the big day for Mayo will be the time trial. He can't lose too much time to Armstrong. And he still needs to win another stage. A tall order.

Fassa Bortolo (Basso -7th- 2:25 out)
I'm still angry with Petacchi. But Basso's doing well. He won't win considering almost the entire team dropped out because of a flu virus going around. He doesn't have the support to win, but he can hold on to the top ten. But he's on his own.

FDJ (Fritsch -70th- 53:49 out)
Kiddie time is over, but it was fun while it lasted. 2 stage wins, 3 days in yellow, 5 in green, 5 in dots. Oh, and Cooke is still in Green. They have a very real chance to win something. They were leading the peleton along with US Postal today. Talk about making the most of your bid...

Gerolsteiner (Totschnig -14th- 4:58 out)
A complete non-factor. Even their jerseys are bland.

Kelme (Parra- 25th- 9:46 out)
Parra's got an outside shot at King of the Mountains. It's the only thing they have to ride for. Actually, Parra's having a great Tour, it's just the team around him is disintegrating.

Lotto (Bauget -79th- 56:57 out)
Wow, they only have one rider within one hour of the lead. The only reason they have a shot at the Green is because Petacchi decided to quit. So, our advocated strategy of leave McEwen alone seems to be working. but now he should mark Cooke, not Zabel.

ONCE (Jaksche - 18th- 7:05 out)
Beloki's crash completely changes their Tour. What to ride for? Jaksche could win King of the Mountains but Virenque has a huge lead there. They were having a very good Tour, and one unfortunate crash ruined the whole thing.

Quick Step (Virenque - 16th- 5:59 out)
Virenque's got a huge lead for the dots. Jaksche is 60 points out and in 2nd place. So Virenque would actually be well-served to take a stage easy and let Lance build a bigger lead in the GC, thereby making him less of a threat. That will mean Postal will then allow Virenque to go out on insane breakways as he would pose no threat to their man.

Rabobank (Boogerd -23rd- 8:53 out)
It's been a very bad Tour. Once Leipheimer went down, it's pretty much been a struggle to find a reason to keep riding. They are acquiting themselves well, but they aren't really competing for anything. It was over on day one.

Saeco (Ludewig -55th- 43:42 out)
Man, did Simoni lay an egg. He's never been in it, and he's 55 minutes out. Just a horrific Tour. Probably the wrost performance from a real contender.

Team Bianchi (Ullrich -6th- 2:10 out)
Ullrich isn't out of it yet, but he hasn't really shown he can press an advantage. They will probably keep riding for their man, develop a team heirarchy and build for next year. Ullrich just isn't all of the way back, and they know it.

Telekom (Vinokourov -2nd- 0:21 out)
I've really been impressed with their ride. Zabel hasn't been able to finish his sprints, but the team has consistently put him in the position to win. Botero came out in terrible form, and they immediately shifted gears to support Vino, who has now successfully broken from Armstrong twice. Their top guys have let them down, but their domestiques have ridden better than any other team except maybe the Posties.

Vini Caldirola (Zampieri -96th- 1:06:04)
Not a single rider within one hour. Barely in the top 100. Garzelli just abandoned. I'm looking for a positive but I can't find it. Rides like this justify the organizers decision to add lousy French teams instead of the Italians.

US Postal (Armstrong- 1st)
Not blowing away the field, but Lance is in first. As always, the team is riding solely for Armstrong's benefit, no other goal matters. Riders kill themselves early on to set the pace and then drop off and finish 30 minutes out, completely spent. They lead the peleton every day. It's just been an exhausting ride for these guys, and they need to step up and ride even better over the last half of the race if they hope to get Armstrong his fifth title. He needs some breathing room, and that means an attack in the Pyranees.







Monday, July 14, 2003

Stage 9 madness

The bell tolls for Beloki
Joseba Beloki was having his best TdF ever. He gained my respect by attacking several times. That crash was brutal and it's tragic that he's out of the race now. But it's not just this race. With a broken femur, wrist, and elbow, he can't do the Vuelta, and this may rock his future in the long term.

The threat of Vinokourov
After years of being Jan Ullrich's general, Vinokourov has been given the green light to go for himself, and he's making the most of it. For who straight days he attacked Armstrong in the mountains and survived. The race is on, and Armstrong no longer has margin for error against him.

On another note, Vinokourov dedicated his win to Andre Kivilev, his friend who died in a crash earlier this year.

Strategy--going Postal
USPS looks very controlled and deliberate here, so maybe they are waiting to go for the kill in the Pyrenees, suspecting that Mayo and Vino will be worn out by then. Maybe, maybe not. I hardly believe the USPS gameplan was to lose time in the Alps. Armstrong usually takes command when they hit the mountains, but he hasn't managed to go on the offensive yet.

But Lance Armstrong must go on the offensive in the Pyrenees, regardless of the result of Friday's indivdual time trial. He felt bad in the Alps and only lost a little time to two riders. If he continues to feel bad, they have a great chance to beat him. But if Lance feels good one day...

Oh, by the way, there are 11 climbs of category 1 or HC remaining . Two of them are at finish lines (Stages 13 & 15). Four of them are in one stage (Stage 14). Yeah, I can see Armstrong going on the offensive.

Oh, by the way, in 2001, Lance Armstrong beat Vinokourov in the first time trial by 3:48 and in second time trial by 2:47.

Mail call & rules
I've gotten lots of mail asking about Lance Armstrong's ride through the hayfield. When Beloki crashed in Stage 9, Lance swerved off the road. He was going so fast that he couldn't get back onto the road, so he continued across the field and rejoined the race on the other end of the hairpin curve. It really was an amazing move, but the bottom line is that Armstrong cut the corner, which was about 100 meters of pavement.

The TdF rule book naturally says that riders aren't allowed to cut the course and may incur penalty if they do. However, it's quite vague as to making a penalty mandatory or even describing any penalty. The dictators of the TdF can do whatever they want about this one. They haven't announced any penalty yet, and if they are to do so, I presume it would be all said & done before the next stage begins.

Given the circumstances, it's obvious that Armstrong wasn't cheating, and he didn't gain any advantage--unless he had been compelled to return to the spot where he went off the road. But, I'm a stickler for the rules. I'd vote to levy a 30 second penalty just to set precedent so that in the future no one tries to gain an advantage in a similar fashion. Had Armstrong gone by the book and returned to the road at the spot where he left it, he would have been off the chase group by about 20-30 seconds. Also, a penalty of 30 seconds isn't the type of thing that would decide hid fate in the Tour. So, I think that would be a fair penalty. However, I don't think it would be wrong NOT to penalize him given the circumstances. Sometimes it's good to leave leeway in the rulebook. After all, they don't do a thing about guys hanging on to the team car when they fetch water bottles.
Stage 9

This is the most important moment of the 2003 Tour:



All this time, we've been saying the only thing that will stop Armstrong is sickness or a crash. And he came within a few feet of crashing out of the Tour. Beloki's crash forced Armstrong off the road to avoid total disaster. Beloki was not so lucky. Armstrong's chief rival didn't finish the stage, and will spend the evening in the hospital. It's over for Beloki, in what was shaping up to his best chance to win.

For all of the talk about l'Alpe d'Huez, today's climb proved to be just as important. The top riders once again went on the attack in the last kilometers of the stage and just absolutely tore apart the peleton. For about two hours, Jaksche thought he might be in yellow, opening up a nice 6 minute lead. The Posties slowly chipped away at the lead and once they reached Cote la Rochette, they just went nuts. Who would have thought a Category 3 climb would be so brutal?

Once again, Vinokourov launched a successful alte attack. This time, it gave him a stage win. He has to be considered a real threat now. Today, the leaders put ditance between themselves and the peleton. And the numbers from yesterday are slimming: now there are 4 riders within 2 minutes, 13 within 5, and 24 within 10. Riders are dropping off. Armstrong is imposing his will on the race, now he just needs to get rid of Vino and Mayo.

Now, to deal with Mr. Gioia...
A response to Jason's rant

Hey, Jason. I didn't advocate the idea, I said it wouldn't happen and even if it did, Lance would win anyway. The "super-team" concept is going to fail because while someone is willing to be the domestique of someone on thier team, there's no way a guy like Iban Mayo is going to do the work for Jan Ullrich. It was doomed from the start because there's no one rider everybody could agree on to support over Lance. And, as you point out, every attack takes something out of the challangers.

I've had a day to think about it and I think Lance is feigning weakness. It wouldn't be the first time he's played to the cameras (think 2001 Alpe d'Huez). He called out Rubiera in the press for setting too fast a pace, and for a guy who is always in control of himself, I don't think it's a slip of the tongue. I think Armstrong is trying to lure his rivals into attacks to thin the field. Look at Stage 8 again. The Posties reach the base of Huez and go on a supersonic pace right away. A lead group of nearly 40 riders becomes 5 awful quick. In about two minutes, Postal found out who had the legs to challenge Armstrong. Everyone else just got rolled. A couple of riders fought back to join up with the winner's group (like Mancebo and Basso), but they showed they couldn't withstand a direct assault. He let Mayo and Vino go late, but Armstrong had identified his biggest challengers as Beloki, Hamilton (?!), Mayo, and Vino. No one else could really keep up with his high gear.

So we go into Stage 9 and Lance, as per the norm, attacks the mountains again. Who can put forth the same effort on two straight days? Once again, the same riders he identified as a threat show up. So he has to take them seriously. And of the top nine I listed yesterday, only a two weren't in the lead group of 12 today (5th place Mancebo and 7th place Heras). While Mancebo is still within 1:37, he's not equal to Lance. He can drop him in the Pyranees. Hamilton is a big question with the broken collar bone, and now Beloki's crash takes him out of the race. That leaves only two top challengers: Mayo and Vinokourov. Armstrong is letting those two guys kill themselves right now, and come the Pyranees, hopefully, Armstrong will be strong and can make his knockout blow.

Just my theory on the Postal strategy.

Sunday, July 13, 2003

Stage 8: High drama in the Alps

Stephen has covered most of the highlights of the day, but I'll add a few before drifting off into a rant. Iban Mayo had a great race today. He ripped up the road to Huez as fast as anyone I've ever seen. His whole team came out to shine today. Euskaltel took three of the top 9 spots at the finish line and vaulted themselves into first place in the team competition.

Richard Virenque popped on the last climb, but he racked up a lot of points on the earlier climbs and now has a lead of about 80 points in the King of the Mountains competition. Being that the man behind him is Lance Armstrong, Virenque can cruise to victory. Denis Menchov also extended his lead in the race for the white jersey, now 2:14 lead over Mikel Astarloza of AG2r

After 8 stages of racing we can now declare a few riders & teams dead. Gilberto Simoni--the Giro champ who was going to attack Lance Armstrong in the mountains--was dropped again today, leaving him 20 minutes behind Armstrong now. Santiago Botero is also in horrible form, now 48 minutes behind. Remember when I said Fassa Bortolo was taking the Tour seriously? Well, on the heels of Petacchi's departure FOUR more Fassa riders have abandoned. The whole team only has three men remaining in the race! Oh, we've yet to mention Alessio yet. Did you know they were in the Tour? Pietro Caucchioli was tenth on the stage today, thus giving Alessio it's biggest accomplishment of the race.

Now to the rant...

Several people have put forth the theory of riders from different teams combining their efforts to take out Lance Armstrong. Such luminaries as Phil Liggett and Stephen "TD" Baker have even espoused this idea. And if today's stage was that theory in action, well we have seen how wrong-headed it is. See, if several riders launch attacks repeatedly, as we saw on l'Alpe d' Huez today, it's not just an attack on Lance Armstrong, but on every other rider. So the "team" of riders against Lance had to attack enough to thin themselves down to a small group. People talk about it as though multiple attacks weaken Armstrong but not the other riders with him--ask them if they get put into difficulty too. Unless team leaders decide to work for one uber-challenger--like Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and Vinokourov working for Beloki--this ain't gunna fly.

What if they do it on multiple days to wear Armstrong down? It might work to be relentless with him, but maybe not. Today Armstrong had a bad day and STILL won the yellow jersey! On a bad day he was able to match every attack from Beloki, the closest man to him, and out-sprint him for the 8 second time bonus. Would the same riders have the strength to do this on multiple days? Again, they'd knock each other out of contention in the process. OK, enough of debunking this theory for now. The challengers should hope Armstrong had an off day because he's coming down with the flu.

I hope I didn't jinx him.
Stage 8

Let me say for the record that Alessandro Petacchi is the biggest punk in professional cycling. How on earth do you drop out of the Tour de France when you have a huge lead for the Green Jersey? He was going to win the Points title, given annually to the best sprinter on the Tour and instead he just spits in the face of cycling fans and drops out before he has to climb the mountains. Hey, it's one thing to try and climb the Alps and fail, but he didn't even try. Petacchi dropped out the first moment he reacheda hill. It was a total disgrace, and it's the exact reason the Tour doesn't invite guys like Cipollini to the race. It's a slap in the face to guys who try and finish the Tour. No one's going to confuse Baden Cooke with the elite climbers of the world, but he's out on the mountains, suffering, so he can win one of the top awards in the greatest cycling race in the world. Cooke's in Green now, but his lead is tainted because he was oer 30 points behind the leader. Disgust doesn't begin to describe it.

Today was the big day: l'Alpe d'Huez. This is usually when Lance Armstrong lays down the hammer and takes total control of the race. It simply didn't happen today. He's in yellow, dropping Virenque on the base of the great mountain, but he's only up 40 seconds on Beloki. Last year, Armstrong gained over two minutes on this stage, this year, he left the door wide open to his biggest rivals. He simply could not shake them. And maybe Rubiera did set too fast of a pace early on, but Armstrong didn't have to call him out after the race. Keep the stuff within the team, don't complain about your domestiques to the press after you fail to win a stage; that's the sort of thing David Millar does, not Lance Armstrong.

Nine riders made up the lead pack, and the group was notoable for its absences. Ullrich, Heras, and Moreau all cracked early. They picked up some time late and only finished 3:36 out and 1:24 behind Armstrong's group. Ullrich just simply couldn't hang in the mountains, he doesn't have the strength. The cracking of Moreau (and earlier Millar and Virenque) come as no great suprise. But Heras? He usually crushes in the mountains and he was almost a total non-factor, leaving Armstrong alone in the lead group. The other notable crack was Gilberto Simoni, who pretty much saw any chance of a podium finish go up in flames. He finished 12:42 out.

So the lead group punished the rest of the field. However, in the final 10 kilometers, Iban Mayo and Alexandre Vinokourov successfully broke away from the group. Mayo would win going away and Vino would finish safely in between the two groups, both picking up huge time in the GC. Lance had to let those two go because he suffered under constant attacks, and he conserved his energy to stopping Beloki. It was probably the right strategy, he didn't have it in him to crush the field, so he kept his closest rival close. But psychologically, Armstrong has shown weakness. For the first time in five years, he looked like a normal human being out there. Look at the standings, he has a 40 second lead. That's nothing. Six riders are within two minutes. 19 are within five. 36 are within ten. Armstrong is winning, but he's not dominating.

The winner of this Tour is coming from this group of nine, the top in the GC:

1 ARMSTRONG Lance USA USP in 35h 12' 50"
2 BELOKI Joseba ESP ONE at 00' 40"
3 MAYO Iban ESP EUS at 01' 10"
4 VINOKOUROV Alexandre KAZ TEL at 01' 17"
5 MANCEBO Francisco ESP BAN at 01' 37"
6 HAMILTON Tyler USA CSC at 01' 52"
7 HERAS Roberto ESP USP at 01' 58"
8 ULLRICH Jan GER TBI at 02' 10"
9 BASSO Ivan ITA FAS at 02' 25"

Vino, Beloki, and Mayo are all excellent time trialists, they will be able to hang with Armstrong in those stages. Every rider in this top group has shown they can climb and are at least a threat. Endurance is the key. Basso's holding on by a thread, and Ullrich didn't show much form today. However, look at 6th place: Tyler Hamilton. The man isn't human. He just rode with the top group up Alpe d'Huez with a broken collarbone. He's in 6th place overall and still has a chance at the podium. I'm in awe of this guy.

The Tour just got officially interesting. Armstrong is mortal. Stop the presses.






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