Stage 19--the final time trial

1. Lance Armstrong (1:06:49). Gee, I can't believe Armstrong won. What a shocker. He'll go to Paris with a lead of 6:38. For a guy that Stephen says is near the end of his road, he sure stomped one of the deepest TdF fields in recent memory.

2. Jan Ullrich (+1:01). Why does Ullrich keep losing to Lance by 61 seconds? For the first time ever, Ullrich will not finish on the podium. Ullrich was really strong in the last week of the race with his attacks in the mountains and his great time trials. But two days off form in the Pyrenees were too much to overcome.

3.  Andreas Kloden (+1:27). Outstanding job by Kloden to stay close to Ullrich. Kloden only made one attack in the three weeks, but he was strong throughout. He was among the last to get dropped in the climbs, and he was superior to Basso in the time trials, so he jumps up to a second place finish.

4. Floyd Landis (+2:25). You've got to be kidding me! Landis had every reason to take it easy after the job he did over the last week, but I suppose he wanted to shock us again. Holy cow! Landis is awesome. Never again in his career will he have as good a week as this last one.

5. Bobby Julich (+2:48). You've got to be kidding me! His career ended a few years ago. He looked dead after a crash last week. What has gotten into these guys? There was a time when American cyclists were a joke in the Tour. Today they were 1st, 4th, 5th, 11th (Hincapie), 12th (Leipheimer) and 24th (VandeVelde) on the stage. 

Julich had a much better day Saturday.
 

6. Ivan Basso (+2:50). Basso may catch some heat for losing his second place to Kloden. The good news is he held off Jan Ullrich and will finish 3rd. No shame in that. He had to be expecting to fall a spot--Kloden was close and Basso isn't an elite time trialist. Really, he turned in a gutsy race today to cap off a fine Tour. Come this time tomorrow, he can say he's one of only 5 men ever to beat Ullrich in a TdF. That should put it in perspective.

Other notables:
I, too, was hoping Thomas Voeckler could hang on to his white jersey, but Vladimir Karpets was just too strong. Voeckler was even passed by Sandy Casar, but earned a spot on the podium, finishing 3rd in the young punk category. I'm glad he gets some hardware. Maybe he'll develop into a good climber and a good time trialist. If he does, he'll win the Tour someday, because he definitely has the heart for it. That image of him pumping his fist as he approached the finish of stage 13 at Plateau de Beille, knowing he had dug deep enough to retain the yellow jersey another day is my favorite moment of this Tour. Rocky on a bike.

But let's not forget Vladimir Karpets. He'll win the white jersey, and he's young enough to defend it next year. You think he'll get some offers from other teams?

Telekom barely held off USPS in the team competition. They had a 5 minute lead to start, and Kloden and Ullrich provided a great 1-2 punch. The counterpunch was Armstrong & Landis, leaving the two teams separated by a few seconds. Postal's third rider was Rubiera (+3:40), and Telekom's was Botero (+6:45). Since team time is based on only the top 3 riders, Telekom escapes with one of the smallest margins of victory I've ever seen in the team competition, just 2:04. Think of it this way--CSC is the only other team within 50 minutes of Telekom. And if the team time trial were done on time, not place, Telekom would have won by about 1:24.

But on the day Postal blew Telekom away. Botero was Telekom's third man, and he was close enough to Rubiera to retain the first place for Telekom, but he actually finished behind SEVEN USPS riders. That's right, 7 of 9 were faster than Telekom's third man.

The 2004 USPS team is THE BEST TEAM I HAVE EVER SEEN AT THE TOUR DE FRANCE!

Stage 18

We could have easily expected Stage 18 to be uneventful. The contenders would take it easy on the day in between the Alps and the time trial. A breakaway would escape and an unknown would have a chance to win the day.

Juan Mercado was the happy fellow taking the stage win. Even though we weren’t so interested in this stage, Mercado will make a highlight film out of it because he made a well-timed attack of his breakaway group. He and Acosta did a great job working together to keep their advantage on the other three—the Euskaltel guys should take note of that—and then Mercado finished the stage with a savvy attack just before the line.

The other story line was the horseplay of Lance Armstrong. Early in the stage Fillippo Simeoni tried to join the 6 man breakaway, but Armstrong followed him and they bridged the gap. This is really bizarre—the yellow jersey never goes out of the way for such nonsense. See, Armstrong and Simeoni sort of…hate each other. Simeoni has filed a defamation suit against Armstrong, so Lance decided to kill any chance of Simoni getting a stage win by shadowing him. See, Telekom and CSC would never let the yellow jersey go away like that, so the breakaway was doomed. The guys in the breakaway knew this, so they kicked Simeoni out. Lance and Simeoni sat up to be caught by the peloton, and the breakaway went on without Simeoni. That’s why they call Lance “The Boss.” If “The Cannibal” weren’t taken by Eddy Merckx, that would fit too.

Yeah, this illustrates why some guys hate Lance. But if you were a five time winner, on your way to Paris for #6, you could inflict your will on people too.
Nanny-nanny-boo-boo!

Oh, are Banesto and Rabobank ever going to win a stage again? Just curious.

Lance finally lost a mountain stage. He'd won four consecutive mountain stages, and I was beginning to wonder if he was ever going to lose a climb ever again. Yeah, it was a breakaway of riders too low in the GC to be a threat to anyone, but I had gotten used to seeing Armstrong sprint to the line ahead of Basso, Ullrich, Kloden and a random fifth rider. Jason's brought up the elephant in the room, so let's get right to it: has this gotten boring?

I'll be the first to admit that Indurain bored the crap out of me. Part of my love of Claudio Chiappucci is that he stood in perfect contrast to the Big Mig: colorful, quotable, reckless, and let's face it, tactically inept. Indurain had no signature moment, just a quiet demolition of the field in five consecuvtive colorless races. He was methodical, brilliant, and so boring that it's hard to think of any details of any of his triumphs. That's just how Indurain was. Lance is interesting to us for three reasons: his backstory, his style, and the fact he's an American.

Let's not kid ourselves, we're more interested in Americans. We try to keep a global perspective here, but we all know the Tour wouldn't get a mention on SportsCenter were it not for the Americans in the race. Well, one American in particular, though in the old days, Andy Hampstead used to get a quick mention before the baseball highlights. And the cancer survivor angle gets even non-sports fans intrigued. It would be silly to think the ridiculous amounts of coverage isn't triggered by Armstrong's American story. But I'm going to focus on his race style.
Lance stays interesting to me because he has had signature moments: the Stare, the Fall, that first stage win, his cut through the field, the war of words with Pantani and Ullrich, and his complete domination of every time trial. Armstrong is fun to follow because he is a ruthless competitor. Like I've said earlier, he doesn't just want to win, he wants to dominate. In a way, Pantani was right when he said that Lance giving stage wins was an insult. Lance's gesture though spoke the truth: "I'm winning the race, so here, have a stage win for your effort. I don't need it."

And we can see the end of his dominance on the horizon. Basso, Kloden, and Vinokourov lead a new generation which will eventually overthrow the old master. It's fascinating to see the end of the era while also watching this new generation come of age. And guys like Ullrich, Beloki, Mayo, and Hamilton aren't done, they still could find a way. It's almost a race to see who becomes the man to beat the man. This year just wasn't time yet, but even with Armstrong's authoratative victory, it's not like he's winning by ten minutes. He's trying to win every stage, and he's got four minutes on Basso. That's real good, but it's not the same level of destructive dominance Lance once held. It's beginning to slip. He's still the best, but the margin is slipping.

There is already talk of Lance retiring. As a fan, I'm begging Lance not to. He doesn't owe us anything, and in the end, it's not me who has to sacrifice my well-being to ride up these mountains, but I would like to see him go for seven. Don't just break the record, obliterate it. Don't win, dominate. It fits in with his career so well. Also, now that six is secure, wouldn't you love to see him ride the Veulta? Go for the double, it's the only thing missing from his career.
Greatness is rarely boring. I'll tune in to watch greatness, even in sports I don't particularly like.

To complete the contrast with Indurain, Armstrong's competition is interesting. The continued French struggles to find a contender, the changing of the guard at Telekom, the emergence of Basso, the Spanish Armada, the new generation of Italians, and the next generation of Americans. Lance has made his competitors better, as it takes perfection to beat him. Panani was always terrific, but Armstrong put him on the next level. Ullrich has never found a way to beat Lance, but he's established himself as a great. Let's put it like this, Stephen Roche won the Tour in the late eighties. A man with his skills, riding today, would be lucky to crack the top ten. This generation of cyclists is that good. The Ullrich of today would beat the Ullrich of his early years by 10 minutes... and he won the Tour back then. Armstrong's inspired a generation of guys who attack relentlessly, as its really the only hope they have of beating him. He's made the sport better. When he retires, there will be a generation of terrific talent ready to take over.

This just in...Lance Armstrong is good.

Well, if you win 4 out of 5 stages at the Tour de France, I'll tell everyone on the web that you're good too. Armstrong has set up all his TdF victories by winning on mountains and in time trials. It's easy to forget that the pre-cancer Lance was a good sprinter who specialized on the flats.



I keep comparing Lance's dominance to that of Miguel Indurain. I wonder if Armstrong is winning so much that he's making it as boring as Indurain did. But I can't make that conclusion. Lance wins by attacking, and it different ways. He could have been boring and just followed his rivals to the finish, like Indurain did so much. He even tried to set up the win for Floyd Landis. But when that didn't pan out, he decided to take the win for himself rather than see Andreas Kloden win. On www.letour.com they compared him to Eddy Merckx, the cannibal. Lance would back away from such a comparison, but the truth is, he's the closest thing to the cannibal that we've seen since Merckx retired.

OK, what has gotten into Floyd Landis? When did he become such a stud climber? Prior to this year, when did you ever see him set tempo on the big climbs? In the Alps he's been Lance's right-hand-man. Today he set such a strong pace that none of the contenders could attack. And when Sastre attacked, he reeled him in. Landis rode everyone except the top 4 off the back--even Azevedo. Landis has had more highlights in the last week than in his entire career.

Today Richard Virenque clinched the King of the Mountains competition. Hooray! We gave him credit for stepping up to the rule changes by riding hard for more days than he usually would. He's earned it (provided he doesn't fail another drug test), but let's be honest--he has no competition. Name another rider that tries to win the KoM. You can't, because there isn't one. A couple riders flirted with the idea, but not seriously. Axel Merckx, Christophe Moreau, and Francisco Mancebo all picked up points on a stage, but no one aimed to pick up points day after day. Lance Armstrong is second in the KoM, not because he gives a hoot, but because he likes to beat his rivals in the mountains, and it's pretty tough to do that without picking up points. No, Richard Virenque is the only rider trying to win the KoM. Congratulations! You beat no one, again.

There was a lot of action at the end of stage 17, but CSC lost out. Basso lost a few seconds to Kloden and Ullrich because of time bonuses. Not big stuff, but believe me, Basso would rather have the extra few seconds in his pocket for the final time trial. Kloden's going to jump him, and Ullrich stands a good chance of doing it too. And CSC lost plenty of time in the team competition. In fact, they fell to third behind USPS, thanks to the great rides of Lance, Landis, and Azevedo. Telekom has a 5 minute lead on USPS and 10 minutes on CSC, so if CSC has any chance, they've got to send a man up in a breakaway tomorrow, hope it survives, and hope Telekom doesn't have a man in it. So, it's up to you, Jens Voigt.

Thomas Voeckler fought hard to maintain his white jersey, but his lead is just 45 seconds over Vladimir Karpets, and he's going to give Voeckler a serious beat down in the time trial.

The Final Four

After the Alpe d'Huez time trial there are only 4 men with legit shots at the 3 podium spots. By now you already know that Lance Armstrong beat the snot out of everyone to get the stage win. His lead over second-place Ivan Basso is now 3:48. Basso did a respectable time trial, but he still lost big time to Ullrich and Kloden.

OK, Ullrich was weak in the Pyrenees, but he's back on form in the Alps. He was second on Alpe d'Huez, gaining 40 seconds on Kloden and over a minute on Basso. Ullrich still has an ace in the hole for the long time trial on Saturday, so he's a huge threat to move up. Currently, Basso is just more than a minute ahead of Kloden and 4 minutes ahead of Ullrich. The next man is Lance's teammate Jose Azevedo at 9 minutes back, and we know he's not gunning for the podium. Azevedo is just ahead of Mancebo, who has fallen off the map in the Alps.

Now that the boys at OLN have decided the race is over, you might think there is no reason to watch anymore, save the green jersey race on Sunday. But there is a huge race brewing between CSC and Telekom. I already covered the Basso-Kloden-Ullrich triangle, but there is another race for the team competition. Telekom and CSC have swapped the lead each of the last 4 stages. Telekom is now 3:44 ahead, and you can expect that to grow in the final time trial.

So, what is CSC to do with their podium spot and team time at risk? They must strike in stage 17, regardless who's tired from Alpe d'Huez. It's Basso's last chance to gain time on Kloden and Ullrich, and the team's last gasp for the team title (probably). Simply put, Basso must attack on the final climb of the day. If he attacks early on the Galibier, or the Madeleine, it'll be too far from the finish. He'll burn out, and USPS will chace him down. About 100 km after the climb to Madeleine they hit the category 1 Col de la Croix Fry, 12 km at a 6% grade. Basso needs to go all out to put time on his rivals and secure his podium spot. And while he's vying for a podium spot, he needs to act like a team leader and throw his weight around. That means having Bobby Julich and Carlos Sastre set a heavy pace on the penultimate climb in order to weaken Telekom. 

Stage 17 profile--CSC vs. Telekom

 
Kloden is too close to Basso for comfort, and Ullrich is coming too. Basso needs to act now on his terms rather than being at the mercy of his competitors in the time trial.

What no one noticed on stage 16
 
There was a sprint bonus in between the category 2 and category 1 climbs. Stuart O'Grady and Thor Hushovd took a stab at it. Neither one is a climber, but O'Grady picked up 6 points and Hushovd picked up 4. Zero for McEwen and Zabel. Hushovd creeps into second place now, one point ahead of Zabel, and now 12 behind McEwen. Meanwhile, McEwen says he's worried about staying within the cut-off time in the Alpe d'Huez time trial. Remember a few days ago I said that it's no biggie for McEwen to pick up 1 point on Hushovd, but if it were reversed, I'd make a big deal about it? There you go.
 
As for the nitpicking of Armstrong, put it into perspective. The guy just sprinted to a stage win in the Alps and picked up the yellow jersey, but you find a problem with it. Cheap gin indeed!
 
We should not have expected a massive attack from Lance Armstrong today. When he attacks the contenders, he does it on the biggest climbs and at stage ends--a category 1 or HC climb. Stage 15 had 7 categorized climbs, but the last three were category 2 or 3. The last killer one was 50-60 km from the finish. Why attack on the day before Alpe d'Huez when there isn't much to gain? Why attack when he's got time over everyone? Once Voeckler cracked, I suspect Lance was content to ride to the finish without going hard so that he could conserve energy for tomorrow. Jan Ullrich's attack changed the tempo of the day. So, in exchange he got the stage and put time on Mancebo and Totschnig. Thanks for the assist, Jan.

Anything left in the tank, Jan?

photo from www.grahamwatson.com

 
Ullrich's move was certainly an act of desperation, and it didn't work the way he wanted. But it shows that both in his team and on his race he's going down swinging. The question is...did he tire himself too much today? How will he do on Alpe d'Huez? Will he claw back enough to be within striking distance of the podium for the final time trial?
 
 

And, oh, by the way, Floyd Landis earned his yearly salary today, pulling back all the leaders in the mountains, including Ullrich. When did he become a climber?

Note: I neglected to include this in the team preview that I did before the Tour started, but Vinokourov (reportedly) stayed out of the Tour because of a crash he suffered in the Tour of Switzerland in June. He busted his shoulder and wasn't ready to ride. At least that's what the team says.
 

STAGE FIFTEEN
 
First, let us pause today to recognize the two riders who did not start the stage: Iban Mayo and Jakob Piil. Sometimes, even the best cyclists have lousy Tours, and this was a spectacularly bad Tour for Mayo. He decided after a warmup yesterday that his form was off, so he decdied to pull out of the race. Yeah "off" is a way to describe it. A pre-race favorite who got a course designed almost explicitely for him, Mayo is down by 45 minutes. It's hard to find a team captain having a worse Tour. He's been non-competitive from the word go, and he's been even less of a factor in the mountains. We normally criticize those who abandon, but come on, just make the torture end and go home. I can't really blame a guy who was supposed to be, at worst, a top ten finisher going home when he's trailing guys like David Moncoutie by 20 minutes.

Jakob Piil, however, has rode a brilliant Tour so far. If there was a breakaway, there was Piil. Without reservation, I will call him the most aggressive rider of the 2004 Tour, and we love our aggressive riders here at BartCopSports. In Stage 14, he finished in dead last due to a torn tendon in his right knee. Let's give the guy credit for trying to ride through the pain, but it was just too much for him in the end. That's a shame, as Piil's been a real treat to watch this year. The race is a little poorer for his absence.

Today, also, we mourn Voeckler's loss of the yellow jersey. when he cracked, he cracked big time, but this takes nothing away from his epic defense during week two. The peleton split early today, and despite several attempts, Voeckler could never rejoin the main group. He's been riding over his ability for a solid week, and today it just caught up with him. There's no shame in cracking, particularly after the truly heroic defense he gave.

I think it's also safe to concede the King of the Mountains title to Richard Virenque. I make no secret of my dislike of Virenque, but today I'm gonna say nice things about him. Usually, he attacks early and picks up points on the smaller climbs, only to get crushed on the final climb of the day, so it was nice to see Virenque hang with the leaders during the final ascent today. He didn't win the climb, but he at least finished among the leaders. He acted like a real climber, not a guy just picking up cheapie climbing bonuses. He still sprinted at the top of each ascent, but he contested the biggest climbs of the day, a rarity for Virenque, so that was a positive development and one I was happy to see.

All right, enough beating around the bush. Armstrong took the yellow jersey today by winning the stage, but this wasn't vintage Lance. He won, but he didn't destroy and demoralize. A group of ten riders rode the final Col de Chalimont together, and it's worth looking at the group, as it involved the heaviest of heavy hitters. In recent years, heck, in recent stages, Armstrong has blown these little groups apart. He just didn't do that today, just methodically racheting up the pace until he won the stage in the end. That's how normal people win stages like this, not Lance Armstrong. Hey, I'm nitpicking, but Armstrong sets the standard at perfection, so let's hold him to that. Let's look at the elite group:

The Posties. Only Armstrong and Azevedo after Landis did the heavy lifting early on. Azevedo set the pace for the group while Lance sat near the back watching for breaks.
Rabobank. Both Leipheimer and Rasmussen were in this elite group. Levi's flexing his muscles and showing he's one of the top cyclists, and Rasmussen spent most of the day out front with Virenque. After getting reeled in, he managed to hang on.
Virenque. The King of the Mountains. OK, he wasn't gonna win the stage and he wasn't up front setting the pace, but he was in the elite group, which counts for a lot.
CSC. Ivan Basso brought two domestiques with him. Sastre made sense, but how the hell did Jens Voigt manage to hang in this group? As a reward, he got to play pacemaker along with Azevedo.
T-Mobile. And of course, the tenuous duo of Ullrich and Kloden. Ullrich attacked early on the previous climb, but Armstrong didn't even react, slowly just pulling him back in. Nothing demonstrates the changing of the guard better, can you imagine just one year ago Lance allowing Ullrich out of his sights for even a second? And Kloden wasn't there to set a pace for Ullrich.

Notably absent from the group is Mancebo. We didn't expect Totschnig or Caucchioli to hang on in this kind of group, but I thought maybeMancebo would make a run at the podium. I don't think I saw him once during the coverage today. He was a complete non-factor. Today, the favorites finally asserted themselves. We know who is for real and who isn't. Guys like Simoni are having nice Tours and may even finish in the top ten, but they aren't a threat. If you weren't in this group, you're the peleton (or a sprinter). This was strictly A-list.

It's also interesting to note who got dropped in what order over the final five K. The first off the back were the two CSC domestiques. Basso's having a great Tour, and he's got tremendous support, but they are just a hair weaker than US Postal. If Basso and Armstrong changed teams, there's no telling who would win this race. Not to say CSC is weak, they are the strongest team not in blue.

The next group off the back was Azevedo, Virenque, and Rasmussen. Azevedo peeled off secure in the knowledge of a job well done. He brought Lance to the 2km flag and let him take over. Virenque and Rasmussen, spending most of the day all alone well ahead of the peleton, just cracked close to the finish. Not a suprising event, and mainly due to Azevedo's work. He cleared the field.

Leipheimer just couldn't make it to the final sprint, getting dropped in the final kilometer. Hey, he's just not as strong as the top four who made it to the final sprint. And the leaders of that final sprint were, of course, Basso and Armstrong. They are the strongest, leaving the two Telekom teammates to fight for third (which Ullrich won today). Ullrich is never going to be a domestique, and his race to the line over Kloden is his last gasp of authority over the team. No upstart's gonna take the team from him until he's good and ready.

So, it's down to two men. Basso and Armstrong will race up Alpe d'Huez. This is the way it should be. No teams, no help, no nothing. Just a man and his bike going up the mountain. May the better man win. It's still an open question of who that will be.

Too many weddings, too little time. Thanks to Jason for filling in the gaps while I spent my weekend watching people tie the knot as I downed cheap booze. Tip to wedding guests: just say no to a gin and tonic made with generic gin.

Anyway, I did watch the Tour in the mornings but didn't get a chance to comment on it. Jason pretty much hit all of the topics I wanted to hit on, so I'll just add one or two things before going to the first two weeks in review.

First, let's give some love to Sylvain Chavanel. Along with Rous, he was supposed to be Brioches' best chance at a nice finish in the GC, and he has been having a pretty good Tour. However, with Voeckler in yellow, he completely adjusted his race strategy in order to help protect the maillot jaune. Voeckler spent the weekend getting constantly dropped by the top climbers, only to get nursed back to the pack by his teammates. That means that Chavanel, who has showed the ability to hang in these climbs, dropped off the back to help Voeckler get back in the race.

The amazing thing is that both of these riders know that Voeckler will not finish in yellow. In fact, it's quite possible that Chavanel will finish higher in the overall classification when all is said and done. However, that didn't stop Chavanel from putting his personal goals on the shelf to fall back and help out a guy who should be his domestique. Voeckler's amazing defense of the maillot jaune has been the story of week two, and I don't want to take anything away from him. He's shown more heart in the past week than any rider in the race. but he hasn't done this alone. Without Chavanel's selfless act, which probably cost him several minutes, Voeckler's not in the lead right now. Every day in yellow is special, and the actions of the Brioches team demonstrate that.

Now, let's pick on Jan Ullrich. Ullrich is a terrific cyclist, and had Lance not made his comeback from cancer, Ullrich would probably be a five-time Tour winner right now, and we'd be writing arias to him. But life's not fair, and now he's doomed to being known as the guy who kept losing to Armstrong. In the run-up to this year's Tour, Jason and I both looked favorably on Vinokourov's chances to take the helm of T-Mobile from Ullrich. Ullrich solved this problem by keeping Vino off of the Tour team, which seemed like a move that reeked of insecurity. And now, Ullrich is watching a different T-Mobile rider, Andreas Kloden, pass him in the climbs.

In the end, it's not Ullrich's fault Vino isn't riding the Tour. It's the team boss which left Vino home, so the team bears ultimate responsibility. Right now, T-Mobile's roster selection stands as the biggest error of the race. Can you imagine a triple threat of Kloden, Ullrich, and Vino right now? We're practically conceding this race to Lance, and the one man who might be able to beat him is hanging out at home watching this thing on the TV. I'm not saying Vino would beat Lance, but at this point, I think he has a better shot than Ullrich, who just looks past his prime. He's still an all time great, but he's an all-time great entering his decline. Kind of a theme for this year's Telekom team (see ZABEL, Erik).

Finally, I have to echo the praise for Ivan Basso. CSC is a terrific team, so he's got plenty of support which means that Basso really can win this thing. Armstrong's two days in the Pyrenees were simply epic. He punished the field in spectacular fashion. He didn't just blow apart the field, he demolished it. He made great riders look average. he made average riders look terrible. By the end of his two days of dominance, only 37 riders were within a half hour of Armstrong. That's ridiculous. Only 13 riders are within 10 minutes and four within 5 (remember, one of those is Thomas Voeckler). And that's just in two days. What is the field going to look like after the Alps?

While everyone else was cracking, Basso stuck to Lance's wheel and even took a stage win. He's taken Armstrong's best shot and is still standing, even firing back. What we are witnessing is a cyclist coming of age. He's not in this thing for quality finishes anymore, Basso's trying to make his mark in the most unthinkable way: by dethroning Lance Armstrong. Right now, he looks like the only one capable.

Let's take a look at the teams and what they are striving for in this final week.

AG2R
After a run at the points title, Nazon's out of the running. It was a nice first week, but week two sent them spiraling back to reality. And that means hoping that Stephane Goubert can hang on to his top 20 placement in the GC. That's about all they have left to shoot for, which is not a bad prize for a mediocre French club.

Alessio
Pietro Caucchioli is somehow in the top ten, only eight minutes out. I'm not sure if he can keep up this pace, but a top ten finish would be an amazing feat for a team that didn't seem to have a reason to be here once Cipo took his bike and went home.

Brioches La Boulangere
Holy crap. Voeckler is still in yellow, and the team is in fifth overall. Should Voeckler lose the yellow as everyone expects, he still has an eight minute cushion for the white jersey, and his teammates, Jerome Pineau and Sylvain Chavanel, are still in the thick of the race. It's a slam dunk to say this is Brioches best Tour ever, but it can get even better should they actually win a major classification.

Cofidis
O'Grady is still on the fringe of the points race. He's in fourth at 198 points, a good 27 points down. He's in big trouble, but he's not out of it, particularly with the way he always tried to pick up every point he can. He probably needs a major misfortune to befall McEwen in order to win. Moncoutie is their best placed GC rider, sitting in 30th place.

Credit Agricole
Christophe Moreau is having a pretty god Tour without anyone noticing. He's in 16th overall, about 12 minutes down. He's 50 points behind in the race for polka dots, but that's good for second place and there are plenty of climbs to come. An aggressive ride through the Alps could vault him past Virenque. Husovd's still lurking in the Green Jersey competition. At 209 points, he trails by 16. Hushovd can pick up 16 points on McEwen in the final day. He still should punch his teammate in the face for costing him about 10 points.

CSC
Ivan Basso is probably the only man who can beat Lance. What's depressing is that this team is having such an amazing Tour, and they may go home empty handed in the awards. They aren't even winning the team title, down by 5 minutes to T-Mobile. They have not shot at green, white, or the dots. Basso's a longshot just because he's up against Lance, though he looks like he'll make the podium. And can Jakob Piil please win a stage?

Domina
I'm not jumping ship from Scarponi, my pre-race pick for the white jersey, just yet. He's 22nd overall, within 14 minutes of Armstrong. That's good for fourth in the youth classification, but how well will Voeckler hang on once he loses the maillot jaune? He needs to pick up five and half minutes on Casar, no easy task, but it's not like he's dead in the water. Get in some breakaways and try your luck in the mountains.

Euskatel
This Tour has been an unmitigated disaster. Mayo's over 45 minutes out and he's still the best placed member of his team in the GC. My suggestion that he just ride for the climber's jersey is now moot. He can't win that either. they will just ride out the string and hope Mayo doesn't bolt to another team in the offseason.

Fassa
After Petacchi's predictable withdrawal from the race, Fassa' actually done pretty well. They've won some stages and Aitor Gonzalez is still within a half hour of yellow. But they are in contention for nothing. It could have been worse, but it's still not good.

FDJeux
Sandy Casar is 10th overall, and 2nd in the youth classification. This is gonna sound strange, but FDJ is actually in contention to win something. Right now, they have to be thinking when Voeckler cracks, he's gonna crack hard, opening the door for Casar to steal the white jersey. He's down by eight minutes, but he's got about five and half on everyone else. It's not the best of positions, but it's still pretty good.

Gerolsteiner
Did you know Georg Totschnig was in sixth overall? He's 6:08 out, meaning he's two and half behind fifth place. Sandy Casar, sitting in 10th, is closer to Totschnig than Totschnig is to Mancebo in fifth. I guess a podium finish is possible, but it's not likely. Hondo's in fifth for the green, but he's practically out of it.

IBB (Banesto)
They are in contention for everything but the sprinter's title. Well, that's not entirely accurate. Mancebo's in contention for nearly everything, with an assist from Karpets in the youth division. Francisco Mancebo's having a terrific Tour so far. He's in fifth overall, keying the team's current standing of fifth place. And he's in third among climbers, just a point behind Moreau. He has a huge decision on the first day of the Alps: do I kill myself and go for the climbing points, forgoing any shot at the podium or play it safe and take a shot at the podium and lose out on the climbing title? I'd go for the podium, but either decision is good, so long as he makes one. He can't hedge.

Liberty
Heras is in 35th. Kiss this Tour good bye.

Lotto
Don't screw up. McEwen's got a comfortable lead for the sprinter's title, but it's not insurmountable. He's a better sprinter than Zabel and everyone knows it, so his real goal is to keep an eye on Hushovd. Actually, the less points available, the better, so they should consider sending riders out to attack the field in the hopes of a breakaway. Axel Merckx's is having a nice ride in the GC, maybe he can finish top 20, but it's not a priority for the team.

Phonak
Hamilton rides last year's Tour with a broken collarbone, but he drops out of this year's because his dog died? Are you kidding me? Despite this major setback, Phonak's having a pretty good Tour, and they have two riders, Pereiro Sio and Sevilla, with a shot at the top ten.

QuickStep
Richard Virenque has a huge lead in the climbing classification, and since he rides just to win dots, I see no reason why he can't hold on and win it. He'll keep winning the intermediate climbs uncontested, only to get blown away in the finish. Michael Rogers is finally living up to his promise. He's 18 minutes back, and his quest for white looks like a lost cause, but he's at least riding well. And he's in 26th overall, no chump finish.

Rabobank
They aren't tearing up the field, but they are having a solid Tour. Leipheimer's in 14th overall, 10:47 out, so he's thinking a top ten finish. Rasmussen's been aggressive in the mountains so far, and he's in fifth among climbers, but I don't think he has any hopes of actually being the King of the Mountains. There's not a whole lot to ride for, really.

RAGT
Sylvain Calzati is one hour, nineteen minutes, and fifty-nine seconds behind the leader. That's good for 96th overall and 1st place on his team. This team just sucks.

Saeco
Last year, Gilberto Simoni was full of big talk and he got his ass kicked. This year, he's keeping a lower profile and he's in 11th overall, still within 10 minutes of the leader. That's a great change of fortunes for this team. Simoni's not going to win this thing, but he definitely had a better Tour than he did in 2003.

T-Mobile
Kloden's in 4th, Ullrich's in 8th, and Vino's at home. I just don't believe Kloden can beat Armstrong and Ullrich has already given up too much time to catch him. So they are left racing for Zabel, a team title, and maybe a shot at the podium. That's nothing to sneeze at, but by all rights, they should be thinking yellow. And though Zabel is in 2nd for the Green, he's been outsprinted pretty consistently. He owes his high place to a lack of crashes. When you set the bar so high, it's hard to call this level of performance a disappointment, but let's be honest... it is.

US Postal
The team is still great, and so is Lance. Nothing in the first two weeks makes me, or anyone else, think that Armstrong isn't going to win his sixth Tour de France. He's just head and shoulders ahead of the field (save Ivan Basso). And we haven't even had the time trial up Alpe d'Huez yet. He hasn't even conquered Ventoux. I expect the Posties will attack Ventoux with an unmatched fury, just to put this race completely out of reach. Wining isn't enough, they shoot for crushing the will of the peleton. Unless your name is Ivan Basso or Thomas Voeckler, mission accomplished. They don't just want to win this thing, they want to win it by ten minutes.

Fassa without Petacchi

Last year Fassa Bortolo had a very odd Tour. Allesandro Petacchi won 4 of the first 6 stages, then abandoned with the green jersey on his back. By the time they reached Paris, more than half the team had quit and Ivan Basso was their lone merit, finishing 11th. Now Basso rides for CSC and Petacchi quit without even making a splash, but Fassa is still having a good Tour. Today Aitor Gonzalez won stage 14, giving his team it's third win of the 2004 Tour. True, the main pack wanted to rest today, so they let the breakaway go. But Gonzalez was stronger and smarter than the rest of the breakaway. A well-timed attack gave him a comfortable margin of victory, and that's that.

The breakaway was huge and finished 14 minutes ahead of the peloton. CSC made their first mistake of the Tour in not putting a man in the breakaway. Telekom did, so they have taken a 5 minute lead in the team competition.

The breakaway scooped up most of the sprinting points, but McEwen led the peloton across the finish. That earned him an extra point over Hushovd and 4 points over Zabel. Not big, but if it had been the other way around, we'd be calling it significant.

Euskaltel--these guys can't avoid bad things, can they? They were the only team with two men in the breakaway, but they finished last in the breakaway. The horrible races of Mayo and Zubeldia have really gutted this team, but I give their other riders an E for effort. In past years they didn't even care to send men into a breakaway, but they've done it a couple times in the last week. But they have two problems: they have no talent on the flat roads, and to call their tactics horrible would be sugar-coating it. Inigo Landaluze was involved in the breakaway that was nabbed 50 meters from the finish a few stages ago, and he was also in the one today, but he and Egoi Martinez didn't do a thing to use their advantage in numbers. Someday they may get it right. Maybe.