The Race of Truth

Serihy Gonchar's ship has finally come in with a dominant 1 minute win in the time trial and a yellow jersey too. This was a tough course that tested everyone, but Gonchar was awesome.

We've noticed that Americans are pretty good at time trials, but today the USA had big problems with the crash of Julich and the awful ride of Leipheimer. Today it was the Germans who put on a clinic. Sebastian Lang was third, and places 6-9 were taken by Sinkewitz, Fothen (who re-claimed the white jersey), and Kloden. Telekom and Gerolsteiner each have 2 of those riders, and Honchar rides for Telekom, so they had an outstanding day in the time trial. Jan Ullrich can retire any minute now. His team does much better without him.

No one expects Honchar to be in yellow after the first mountain, so don't expect Telekom to defend this jersey, but they have lots of options now and can play things close to the vest. They can defend Fothen's white jersey and Kloden is a threat to win the race.

Floyd Landis is a big winner on the day. He was second on the stage and is now second in the GC, just 1 minute behind Honchar. And that's despite losing time for a bike change today. When this race turns uphill, all eyes will be on Floyd.

The guys on OLN talked about Discovery as though they stunk, but that's not true. Disco didn't have a good day, but a fair day. In the overall standings Savoldelli is 70 seconds behind Landis; Hincapie is 90 seconds behind Landis; Popovych is 2:27 behind Landis. Disco has lots of options and can hold their cards close to the vest too.

A few other riders did themselves favors in the time trial today. Denis Menchov, Vlad Karpets, Cadel Evans, Christoph Moreau, Oscar Pereiro, and Carlos Sastre all finished fast enough to leave them in fair shape in the overall standings. They are all within 3 minutes of Honchar and 2 minutes of Landis.

Leipheimer layed an egg today, finishing 96th (behind Iban Mayo!) and is now 6:17 behind Honchar. There has been no explanation why she sucked so bad. An uncharacteristic flop like this is often the sign of sickness. But he also had a lackluster prologue, so maybe he's lost his fitness since winning the Dauphine last month. Whatever the case, he probably kissed his yellow jersey chances goodbye today.

This Tour is going to be a great race, and I forsee a few more exchanges of the yellow jersey. In the days of Armstrong and Indurain, the first time trial usually sent the signal that the favorite was going to win again. It was just unfair that Armstrong was the best in the time trial and the best in the mountains. In this Tour no one has such a psychological advantage that everyone else knows the leader is the best at everything that counts. Even though Landis is looking good right now everyone knows he can be vulnerable in the mountains. It's no certainty that he can ride at the front of the pack every day because it was just last year he was dropped in the mountains.

Speaking of mountains, we've got two big climbs on Wednesday and a colossal finishing climb on Thursday. Think the GC was shaken up today? Wait until Thursday.

Who's too old to sprint?

The Robbie McEwen show continued in stage 6, as he picked up his third stage win in the first week of the Tour and extended his lead in the green jersey race.

McEwen (www.velonews.com)
Erik Zabel is the gold standard of sprinters, so let's compare the two to make a point about how amazing McEwen is.

Zabel won the green jersey 6 consecutive tours, which is a record. He leads all active riders with 12 TdF stage wins. He used to own the green jersey competition, but he doesn't anymore because time catches up to everyone. Zabel celebrated his 36th birthday a couple days ago. He has not won a TdF stage since 2002.

Zabel & son, 2002. (news.bbc.co.uk)
One reason I didn't pick McEwen to win the green jersey is that time catches up to everyone. He turned 34 a few weeks ago. But his 3 stage wins in this Tour give him 11 for his career. It's easy to see him passing Zabel's tally over the next 2 weeks. McEwen may win his 3rd green jersey this year, but it's hard to imagine him matching Zabel's 6. But apparently, one thing McEwen has on everyone, even Zabel, is his longevity as the baddest dude in the bunch sprint.

Stage 5: Freire & Boonen counterpunch

Oscar Freire and Tom Boonen took a bit out of McEwen’s lead today, finishing 1-2 in Caen. The bonus for them is that two riders who are low in the points standings (Isasi and Kopp) finished ahead of 5th place McEwen. That gap means McEwen picked up 22 points compared to 35 for Freire and 30 for Boonen. Zabel and Hushovd were both in the top 10, but since both had zero points on stage 4, they are far behind now. Daniele Bannati was a big loser on the day—no points for his 165th place finish.

Current standings:
Robbie McEwen 122
Tom Boonen 121
Oscar Freire 115
Daniele Bennati 86
Thor Hushovd 81
Erik Zabel 76

There is a lot of racing yet to go, so mathematically, anyone can win, but for the moment it’s a three man race with a few other riders fighting for scraps. The bottom three on that list have all had goose egg days. To get back in contention, they need the top 3 to have goose egg days or abandon the Tour.

Notice that Robbie McEwen finally started to care about the intermediate sprints today. It has always seemed like he totally ignores them, which can be dangerous because competitors can pick up a few points here and there. Today he sent a teammate to pick up third place at each intermediate sprint, preventing his rivals from making up ground.

By the way, the teams of the sprinters have amazing precision at chasing down the breakaways. Even after today’s escapees built a 12 minute lead, the peloton still caught them in the last 5 km.

OK, one more day of this until the race of truth.

Stage 5: The Sprinters Look at McEwen In Awe

Hey, didn’t you used to be Oscar Friere? The former world champ, who has been quietly sitting just behind the leaders in every bunch sprint, finally made his move today and won a stage. Which means Tom Boonen just missed out on winning his first stage this year, making McEwen today’s big winner again.

McEwen is a bad man. He’s the best sprinter in the field, and I really love his almost arrogant style. His team doesn’t lead him out, he just shows up in the last 500 meters out of a thin air, and then kicks your ass. He eschews those points available in the intermediate sprints, as if to tell everyone he’s sure he’s not going to need those points because he’s going to win the stage. And he’s usually right. Boonen, meanwhile, works hard, gets his team to set him up perfectly, even beats McEwen to the line, only to still finish second. With Boonen, it seems like work. With McEwen, it seems easy.

Thor Hushovd has probably lost the green jersey. Not so much for his relegation yesterday, but because of his response to it. Losing 20 points hurts, but its not a critical blow. But Thor’s had a pretty bad run of luck in this year’s Tour: suffering a severe gash, losing his toehold on a final sprint and having to power home on one leg, and now getting a mysterious penalty for irregular sprinting. I think he threw in the towel today. He was in the sprint but finished in 7^th, a very un-Hushovd kind of performance. I think the bad luck has taken its mental toll: it’s not his year.

A final word on Erik Dekker. Here is a description of his injuries, courtesy of cyclingnews.com:

Erik Dekker suffered a concussion and “serious facial injuries: abrasions, facial trauma, a contusion, a ripped upper lip, as well as a couple of broken teeth. He was kept unconscious on Tuesday night so that his face could be cleaned.”

Now THAT’S an injury. These guys are tough.

Stege 4--note to green jersey contenders--McEwen's the man to beat

All that stuff about parity and things being up for grabs that Stephen wrote about yesterday is true, but maybe Robbie McEwen read it and decided to remind us who’s the man to beat. In a first week with the jerseys being constantly exchanged, McEwen became the first man to win a second stage. Collectively the other green jersey contenders have none (unless you count Hushovd’s prologue win). So, all of a sudden McEwen takes the green jersey and an 11 point lead.

Erik Zabel made a career out of being in the top 10 in every bunch sprint of his life, but today he had a flat tire in the closing stretch, so he got a goose egg on the day. It’s not as though Zabel has the strength to overcome McEwen’s 41 point lead in his legs anymore, so this could kill his chances of winning green.

The next two stages are more of the same. There are a few time bonuses and small climbs, but the teams of the green jersey contenders will probably control the race and set up a bunch finish. The question is, will they continue to trade jabs, or will McEwen win again to get a stranglehold on this race?

In response to a comment posted by Stel on prospects for Carlos Sastre, Jose Rujano, and Iban Mayo:

We like Sastre a lot. He’s strong in the mountains, but he probably planned to ride this Tour as Basso’s domestique, not as a yellow jersey contender. I can see him rising pretty high in the final standings, especially if CSC rallies around him.

Rujano’s a great climber, but he’s a pure climber, and this is a course for a time trialist. I think it would be great if he were to aim for the King of the Mountains and a stage win in the Alps.

Iban Mayo…um a couple years ago we were high on Mayo—winning on Alpe d’Huez does that for your reputation. Since then his stock has gone way down on this blog. Wiping out in the mountains and abandoning the Tour does that for your reputation. He’s never been as strong since 2003. Even if he does have great climbing form, Mayo’s always been bad at the time trial, and with over 100 km of time trialing remaining, he’s got his work cut out for him.

Menchov—Karpets—Popovych. I see lots of potential there. None is an identified team leader at this point, though. If any of them turn in a top time for their team on Saturday’s time trial, then maybe we’ll see them get the green light from their teams to go for yellow.

Stage 3: Everyone Is a Contender

We have a mantra here: You cannot win the Tour in the first week, but you can lose it. Today was the sort of day in which people lose the Tour. Today was the first rolling stage, not a serious climb, but not a flat stage either. There were six categorized climbs, three Cat. 4's and three Cat. 3's. We're not talking about Alpe d'Huez.

I really like these sort of stages. It's early enough that fairly minor riders are duking it out for the polka dots. Jerome Pineau is not going to finish the race in dots, but I do like how guys aggressively compete for the jersey they could only hold until the real climbing begins. I also like the rolling stages because they are perfectly designed for breakaways. And while today's break didn't work in the end, it was a viable bid.

But today's stage was marred by two crashes, knocking out three riders: Fred Rodriguez, Erik Dekker, and Alejandro Valverde. This is Dekker's last Tour, and we've poked a lot of good natured fun at him over the years, mainly due to his penchant for crashes. So I feel bad that he won't be able to finish this Tour, but perhaps its fitting he ends his Tour de France career with a DNF. I'm going to miss him. But the big news is Valverde breaking his collarbone. Yet another prerace favorite is out of the Tour (DiLuca dropped yesterday). There's not much to say other than we're running out of contenders, and we haven't hit the mountains yet.

Kessler's late move failed yesterday, so why not try again? Today's move had a much greater chance of working because the peloton was not nearly as organized given the late climbs, and some of the top sprinters weren't even in the front group. Why work to catch a lone rider when your sprinter won't benefit? He gets his well-deserved stage win which he probably should have won yesterday.

But many sprinters were a no-show at the end of the stage. Hushovd was caught in the back half of a split peloton, as was McEwen. Neither participated in the final sprint. O'Grady somehow finished 11 minutes back, begging the question how he'll handle the mountains. Now, every sprinter has had a stage in which they have been a no-show, leading to a ridiculously close Green Jersey standing. The top six are all within ten points. And Friere is only 13 points back in 7th. The top three are all separated by a single point: Boonen at 67, Bennati at 66, and McEwen at 65. And maybe it's time to start considering Bennati a real sprinting threat. He's a classics rider, so I'm not sure what he's doing in all of these bunch sprints, but he's been at the front every single day. Since Boonen is in yellow, Bennati will get to wear green tomorrow.

So far, this has been a very close Tour. Only one rider has held any jersey on back-to-back days, Benoit Vaugrenard in white. And he lost the jersey today. The only other rider to hold a jersey for two days is Hushovd and the yellow, and his reign was broken up by Hincapie. And look at the team distribution of awards so far:

CREDIT AGRICOLE 1 stage win, 2 days in yellow, 1 in green (all Thor)
QUICKSTEP 1 day in yellow, 1 in green
COFIDIS 1 stage win, 1 day in green
DISCOVERY 1 day in yellow
DAVITAMON-LOTTO 1 stage win, 1 day in green
FDJ 2 days in white
TMOBILE 1 stage win
GEROLSTEINER 1 day in dots, 1 day in white
BOUYGUES TELECOM 1 day in dots
RABOBANK 1 day in white
SAUNIER DUVAL 1 day in dots

Of the 20 teams in the Tour, 11 have already won a jersey or a stage. That's not counting Bennati getting to wear green for Lampre tomorrow. And we're only 3 stages in. That's remarkable parity so far.

We're missing the stars, but we're not missing the action. The GC race is yet to heat up, but there's some big names lurking at the top of the standings. Tomorrow is a pretty flat stage, so its another day for the sprinters. Are you excited yet?

Stage 1: Thor Has a Bad Day

Everything went according to form for the majority of the stage. A bunch of no-name riders went on a long breakaway. The peloton slowly reeled them back in, finally succeeding in the last 10km or so. Nothing much to write home about, and frankly, it was a fairly boring stage for the majority of the day.

Then came the last 10 km. With Beneteau, the only rider left in the breakaway, about to be caught, Hincapie somehow snuck up to the front of the peloton for the last intermediate sprint. Hincapie didn't want the points, he wanted that time bonus in order to get the yellow jersey. Hinault was the only rider who caught on to the gambit, and he beat Hincapie to the line in order to, um, protect Hushovd's green jersey from Hincapie. Er, yeah.

Of course, the gambit would only work if Hushovd managed to muck up the sprint, which he would promptly do. But that didn't make him special. Seriously, what happened to all of the big guns during the final bunch sprint? We have certain expectations of who we will see in the top five when there is a legit bunch sprint at the end of the stage. Look at the top five:

1) Casper
2) McEwen
3) Zabel
4) Bennati
5) Paolini

What's Jimmy Casper doing winning a sprint over Zabel and McEwen? This wasn't a fluky sprint in which Casper somehow got off the peloton in the last 100 meters. He just outsprinted the field. I don't know what to make of that. Nothing in his career gave me any reason to believe he'd outsprint McEwen. But at least McEwen and Zabel were in the top five. The other big sprinters were no-shows: Boonen went off too early and finished 12th, Hushovd got caught against the barriers and got 9th, Friere had no excuse and managed 10th, and O'Grady got a disappointing 7th. This was a (mostly) honest sprint and the big names got beat like a drum. Bennati and Paolini aren't exactly Green Jersey contenders either, but there they were.



The one guy with an excuse is Hushovd. He got hemmed in against the barriers and was apparently struck by a fan. I blame those big green fake hands everyone gets. His big cushion from the prologue is already used up, and Hincapie's cheeky move cost him the yellow. He never got a chance to open things up on the final sprint, and he ended his day being carried off in an ambulance. That's an all-around lousy day.

It's not as bad as it looks, though. He's still in second in the Green Jersey standings, and the injury is said not to be serious. But it was the cherry on top of a pretty crappy day for Thor.

Stage 1

Just a brief post since I'm on the road now.

Stage 1 is such a relief--a really interesting day that shows this race can overcome the drug scandals.

For starters, a guy named Thor wore yellow--very cool.
The sage winner was Jimmy Casper of Cofids, a team we dogged in our preview for being second rate.
The bunch sprint produced a little separation among the green jersey contenders. McEwen and Zable took a lot more points than Hushovd and Boonen. Hushovd has his 15 from yesterday to keep him strong, but Boonen can't afford another day like this to make him fall behind.

And then we have the savvy move by Hincapie to take a 2 second time bonus and steal the yellow jersey. Many years ago, perhaps 1998, Hincapie was 2 seconds away from the yellow. Now, several years later, he's finally gotten it--a highlight of his career.

Vive le Tour!