How'd that slip in?

All 4 of our regular readers may recall that we have a habit of ripping ESPN's Tour coverage. It is in part because their Tour coverage blows, but also, admittedly, because we'd prefer if ESPN would just pay us to write a TdF blog. Cash would be good, but we'd settle for beer. Nevertheless, behold the first intelligently written Tour de France piece I have ever seen on ESPN's website.

Once you get beyond the fact that this is a journalist writing about how journalists view the Tour, Ms. DeSimone makes a couple great points.

We can write about teams with pockmarked histories or a remarkable surge in results. We shouldn't declare riders guilty until proved innocent, but we're entitled to rip them when they're shown to be charlatans.

People cheat across the board. We don't stop covering politics because candidates steal elections, we don't stop covering corporations because executives embezzle, and we keep writing love stories even though people stray from their partners. We shouldn't stop covering the Tour de France because some riders dope.

Vive le Tour.

Cancellara Dominates

If Fabian Cancellara sticks with this cycling thing, he might one day make something of himself.

He has to trade in his world time-trialing champion jersey for yellow. Cancellara is a pretty bad man of ITT's, and even on today's short prologue, he found a way to impose his will. He flew through the course and notches his second career stage win, which was also a prologue. So he already knows he looks good in yellow.

He beat Kloden by 13 seconds and the rest of the field by 23. Hicnapie, who finished third, was 23 seconds ahead of Tom Boonen, who finished 41st. That gives you a good idea how far ahead Cancellara was. Kloden is the big gun who gets some time on the field, but those 20-30 seconds probably won't make a difference in the grand scheme of things. Every contender finished within one minute of the leader, so no one laid a horrendous egg or anything.

Really, I'm just pumped everyone is racing again. It's time for the Tour!

Team Previews

Ag2r
Christophe Moreau may one day be a contender if we keep eliminating every quality rider. He’s the great French hope, and is a legit podium contender given the state of the field. But he’ll make some absurd bid for the dots and lose to Rasmussen and lose the yellow as well. (Once again, pretend we’ve discussed how terrible the King of the Mountains scoring system is).

Jason: I can’t believe I’m defending Moreau, but the guy has never shown devotion to the KoM. I doubt that he’ll start now. Your point about eliminating the elite to give him a chance is funny, but, let’s face it…he’s riding well. But he’s 36 and his team is weak.

Agributel
Stephen: Maybe they will win a stage again. Mercado had a fairly decent Tour last year before dropping out. They contribute next to nothing.

Jason: They don’t have to do much to improve upon last year.

Astana
Stephen: Kloden finally gets a team of his own. Only to find Vinokourov there. The two best riders in the field, and they are on the same team. It always worked out so well for T-Mobile, why won’t it work now? Really, the only thing that should hold Vino back from winning this thing is either a crash or his team imploding. But there is such a thing as too much star power. Salvodelli should know his role and will be great in support, but I’m going to miss Kessler, who is sitting this Tour out.

Jason: Well, I don’t think anyone thinks this is Kloden’s team, but he and Vino have made that “support the stronger rider” pact that has failed repeatedly. Since this team is not run by Telekom’s management, there is a chance they will not cut off their nose to spite their face. Besides, Vino will probably attack Kloden early and assert himself.

Barloworld
Stephen: Robert Hunter is South African. I bring that up now because there will be no reason to talk about this team once the race starts, and I wanted to point out the African in the field. This is his sixth Tour. He’s finished exactly one (he finished 97th). He is the top rider on the team.

Jason: Both Astana and Barloworld are wild card teams. Astana’s roster doesn’t reflect that. Barlo’s does. Well, it’s nice that the Tour decided to invite wild card teams not from France. (These are Swiss and British.)

Bouygues Telecom
Stephen: Thomas Voeckler has deluded himself into believing he is a contender after once spending a week in yellow. In a way, I like his tenacity in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence. And while they won’t win anything, the French teams attack like mad and might pull out a stage or something. Which is always fun.

Jason: Bogus Telekom doesn’t have any bullets in the chamber, but I’m also hoping they give an entertaining effort.

Caisse d’Espargne (always Banesto on this page)
Stephen: Absolutely loaded team. This hasn’t worked out well in the past (T-Mobile, LeMond and Hinault), but I don’t think Pereiro is going to try and vie for team leadership. Karpets is a great domestique, but this is Velverde’s team. He’s a legit contender and I think the team will work for him. He just has to finally finish.

Jason: I agree that this is supposed to be Valverde’s team, but you hit the nail on the head in questioning if he’ll finish. As for Pereiro, I like him, but he’s a paper tiger. He’s had three consecutive top 10 finishes, but in two of them he duped the contenders by making up 10+ minutes on one breakaway after he was “out of it.” If he’s allowed to lurk in the shadows, he can be dangerous. If he’s a marked man, it’s a whole different game.

Cofidis
Stephen: They will win a stage or two but not contend for a jersey or anything. A good, solid team. They earned their bid but they aren’t world beaters. I can’t think of anything else to say about them. They are the blandest team in the peleton.

Jason: As we often say, they have “peloton” written on their foreheads.

Credit Agricole
Stephen: THOR! We have some favorite riders around these parts, but rarely have they actually won anything. We tend to like the insane domestiques (Voigt), gutty back of the peleton guys (Dekker), and guys who fall off their bikes (Kessler). I make an exception for Hushovd. He’s my guy. I will root openly for him. Also, they have a couple of guys who are a real threat to win a stage. I’m beginning to really like the mid-level French teams. By the way, my love for riders named Thor does not make me delusional, his green jersey in 2005 was a fluke.

Jason: They are like the talented version of Bogus Telekom. They’ll attack a lot and have a much greater chance of success.

CSC
Stephen: Sastre finished fourth last year and his four top tens on the resume. And they have one of the deepest teams in the Tour, only without any question of leadership. That’s a pretty underrated advantage. He’s my upset pick (not much of one, I know).

Jason: How about Bjarne Riis being asked not to attend the Tour because of his admission that he was doping in his 1996 win? He wasn’t formally banned, more like asked to accept the ban voluntarily. In the case of Riis, we have an admission of guilt. We also have one in the case of Erik Zabel, who said he also took EPO that year. Yet, he is allowed to participate this year! Since the doping police are big fans of speculation in the absence of evidence, I wonder if Tour brass like Bernard Hinault or ex-chief Jean Marie LeBlanc ever took performance enhancing drugs. I mean, what are the odds that Hinault, who raced in the 70s & 80s would have taken dope in an era when pills were plentiful and testing was non-existent?

Yeah, CSC is decent. Sastre for GC, Zabriskie for time trials, Voigt and O’Grady for fun. Cancellera and Schleck ain’t chumps either.

Discovery
Stephen: Obviously, the loss of Basso hurts. Remember when Hincapie was billed as a contender? Not so much this year. And who is the guy? Danielson? Popovych? Leipheimer? It seems they will play a wait and see approach and decide who to ride for in the Alps. Not the best of strategies, but at least they have options. It’s strange for Disco not to be the dominant force in the race.

Jason: Well, tough noogies. I don’t think they can expect to win. I think Leipheimer has missed his window (but then, like Moreau, perhaps enough elite riders have been liquidated), and I think Popovych is still a bit to young. This team should aim for stages and the team competition.

Euskatel
Stephen: Zubeldia is the latest Spanish rider to be wasting his time with these guys. Mayo wasted the prime of his career, and now its Zubeldia’s turn. He’d have a shot on a different team, but with the Basque boys, he peaks as a top ten finisher.

Jason: I like Zubeldia because he rides better than Mayo and gets no pub. Yet, I can’t explain why he’s on this chump team instead of one that could support his talent.

FDJ
Stephen: Speaking of minor French teams, they are the standard bearers. It’s a weak team, but Casar’s always good for a decent Tour. I’m actually impressed by how they have established a niche for themselves in the Tour, but let’s not pretend they are contenders or anything.

Jason: One of the best ways to be an overachiever is to have an underwhelming roster.

Gerolsteiner
Stephen: Time for Fothen to step up and run with the big boys. He lost the white last year to Cunego, but there’s no shame in that. Still a year or two away, but a top ten would be a nice result.

Jason: Fothen showed promise, and at his age he can be excused for not being able to carry this team. Without Leipheimer and Totschnig on the team, it might be a miserable Tour for Gerolsteiner.

Lampre
Stephen: Cunego is taking the Tour off, so the only reason they are here is to maybe win Bennati a Green. He was 60 points out and in 3rd place when he withdrew late last year, so he should be factor if McEwen falls off his bike or something.

Jason: This should be the stereotypical Italian team that sends its bench to waste space at the Tour.

Liquigas
Stephen: Fillipo Pozzoto is the new team leader, fresh off of last year’s mesmerizing 133rd place finish, a mere three and half hours back. Luca Paolini finished in the top five in points last year and won’t ride this year. Apparently the team has dropped all pretense of trying to compete in the Tour.

Jason: Maybe they think Manuel Beltran is their leader, but I don’t think that’s going to work either.

Milram
Stephen: I’ve given up on Petacchi. He’s a terrific sprinter and there is no chance in hell he’s finishing this race. We’re talking about a guy who dropped out at the first sight of hills when he was wearing the Green Jersey. And he’s spared us the drama of when he will drop out by testing positive before the race. So he won’t even have to ride the flat stages.

Jason: Well, there’s no chance he’s finishing because the Italian anti-doping agency is having a hearing next week to ban him for a year for using asthma medication. They pin their hopes on Zabel and Andrei Grivko. Let me know how that works out, guys.

Predictor-Lotto
Stephen: The great thing about McEwen is that he almost holds his own team in contempt. He doesn’t use lead outs and his team doesn’t control the peleton for him. They are just there so he can be in the race. He just finds his closest rival, stalks him, and then destroys him. He’s awesome, even at age 36. Cadel Evans has a shot at the podium, coming off last year’s fifth place finish. The team might as well ride for Evans, McEwen doesn’t need them.

Jason: I disagree. McEwen can win that way (and did a few years ago), but he’s been using his lead out men more and more. Why not take Freddy Rodriguez’ wheel?

Quick Step
Stephen: Boonen is the biggest threat to take the Green from McEwen. The team rode well for him last year and he’s taken some stages, it’s just that he can’t seem to get over the hump. McEwen has to slow down, right? And Boonen’s luck has to turn, right?

Jason: Yeah, Boonen had a great Tour in 2005, but still couldn’t overtake McEwen. I’ll believe it after I see it.

Rabobank
Stephen: My favorite team. I have a weakness for the Dutch. Just a well-balnced team that can do everything. Menchov will compete for yellow and finish top ten. Freire will compete for green and finish top five. Boogerd will offer quality support. And Rasmussen will win the dots. Not a bad month.

Jason: A few years ago I remarked that they were slipping in terms of winning hardware. They fixed that problem.

Saunier Duval
Stephen: Millar is the team captain. He’s a great bet to win the prologue, held in London. He’s a great time trialist riding in front of the home crowd. Then he should fall off his bike (and find a way to blame it on his teammates). But not before Mayo does. I have stage 10 in the pool.

Jason: Having Mayo and Millar on the same team is just farcical. They also have David de la Fuente, who wore the polka dot jersey a lot last year. I doubt he’ll beat Rasmussen, but he might be their bright spot.

T-Mobile
Stephen: Oh, how the might have fallen. Rogers finished top ten last year. Sinkewitz is a solid contender. Eisel has a shot at the green. But this all lacks the luster of Ullrich and Zabel, eh?

Jason: Rogers is better off without the Ullrich drama and their butt-headed team manager.

Doping and My Picks

Cycling’s not dead, but it’s on life support. Which is a shame, we should be entering a golden age with loads of competitive cyclists all vying for the top spot. Instead, this is the doping era in which every rider is suspect, and every race comes with the caveat of who wasn’t racing.

I’m past the point of outrage. In fact, I think we’re at the point where the cure is worse than the disease. Do I think blood doping is a good thing? No. But I don’t understand why certain performance enhancers are legal and some aren’t. Hell, I don’t know what’s a nutritional supplement and what is a steroid is anymore. I don’t think anyone does.

I think we should just have disclosure. I honestly don’t care who is doing what in any sport. Like I said, I’m past outrage. And I don’t think we can ever expect “clean” sports particularly when the line of what is legal and what is illegal is so murky. Let’s put it like this, the big scandal is over EPO, which is a naturally occurring chemical in the human body. Why should I care if cyclists artificially increase their EPO? Does anyone think they could inject some chemicals and then ride the Tour?

OK, that was depressing. On to my picks:

Yellow
1. Vinokourov
2. Sastre
3. Evans
4. Leipheimer
5. Kloden

I’d like to be cute and throw some dark horse on that list, but who? Jason has Moreau which is a sign of the Apocalypse since we both hate Moreau and spend a good portion of our time mocking him. Who’s left? Menchov? Fochen? Rogers? Those guy tap out as podium contenders. Which is not bad, but its hard to say one guy is going to step up out of nowhere.

Green
1. Boonen
2. McEwen
3. Eisel

I’m just picking Boonen to be different. McEwen has to run out of gas eventually. I like Thor, but people are wising up to the intermediary sprints where he makes his living. And someone has to crack this group eventually.

Dots
1. Rasmussen
2. Moreau
3. Kloden

Rasmussen in a walk. Again. Kloden gets a lot of points doing the heavy lifting for Vino.

2007 Tour de France Preview

Unfortunately, the topic of doping can’t be avoided in the 2007 TdF Preview. I’d prefer to focus on the positive, so I’ll save comments on doping for later. Instead, I’ll begin by saying you can still enjoy the Tour despite the doping nonsense. Doping scandals may have decimated the heroes, but this is still the most exhausting sporting event in the world. There will still be 180 men racing over 2100 miles. They still must overcome mountains, heat, wind, and the race of truth. In the end, someone is going to be champion, and it will not be boring.

Not one former winner is in the field, unless you count Oscar Pereiro. In fact, Pereiro, Alex Vinokourov, and Andreas Kloden are the only participants who have finished on the podium. Last year was considered a wide open Tour without a dominant figure, and this one begins the same way.

The Scene:

There is no team time trial, but there are two very long individual time trials totaling 109 km, and there are 6 mountain stages. The first mountain stage is stage 7, on July 14, pretty much destroying the hopes of a French victory on Bastille Day. The following day will be torture in the Alps with 3 category one climbs over the last 90 km. That’s followed by a wacky stage 9 that begins with an HC mountain in the first 15 km, leading to the monstrous col du Telegraphie and col du Galibier before a 39 km descent to the finish. Stages 14-16 are in the Pyranees, and Stage 16 includes two HC and two Cat. 1 climbs.

Just to make things even cooler, the first two days are in England. It’s ironic that David Millar returns from a 2 year ban the same time that the Tour returns to the U.K.

The teams:

There are 21, which is about 3 or 4 too many in my opinion. I’m not going to preview all of them, just the notables.

Cassie d’Espargne (Banesto):

Oscar Pereiro will wear #11, not #1, since the TdF organizers can’t bring themselves to call him the 2006 champ. Anyway, he’s a long shot to win, and might be only the third best on his team, which includes Alejandro Valverde and Vlad Karpets. They are all contenders for the top 10, which means they might win the team competition.

Telekom:
Times have changed. Rather than having favorites for two jerseys and the team competition, they send Michael Rogers, who is top 10 material, and no one else.

CSC:
Another team with less firepower than usual. Carlos Sastre is good, and David Zabriskie is a contender in the time trials. Plus, they have Jens Voigt, who is always fun to watch.

Omega-Lotto:
Could they go 2 years without changing names? They still have Robbie McEwen and Cadel Evans, which means they are favorites to win the green jersey and have a decent shot at the yellow.

Rabobank:
As usual, they send a team that can do some damage. Michael Rasmussen and Denis Menchov are contenders for the top 10, plus they have a couple other guys who have won stages in the past. Michael Boogerd is retiring this year, so this will be his last Tour.

AG2r:
No kidding, but Christophe Moreau is a legit contender. In 2005 & 2006 he raced well. He also won the Dauphine Libere last month. Really, this is France’s best chance to win the Tour in years.

Credit Agricole:
Thor Hushovd is really their only threat to win a jersey.

Discovery:
Last year was disappointing, so they signed Ivan Basso. Then he ran into a problem with the doping police. That means the team is hoping Levi Leipheimer and Yaroslav Popovych can compete for yellow--outside chance for either one. Notably, George Hincapie is trying to finish his 10^th consecutive Tour.

Quick Step:
They ride for Tom Boonen to win green. The rest of the line-up is filler.

Milram:
Alessandro Petacchi is out because of a doping investigation. So, they can pin their hopes on 36-year old Erik Zabel.

Astana:
The team that couldn’t compete last year because they lost 5 riders to the doping scandal returns with Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Kloden, Paolo Savoldelli, and Andrey Kashechkin on the roster. Vino and Kloden have been on the TdF podium. Savodelli is a two time Giro champ, and Kashechkin was third in the Dauphine. This team is loaded.

Predictions:
Yellow Jersey

Alex Vinokourov is the best rider in the race if he's healthy. After being abused by Telekom for years and screwed out of participating last year because some of his teammates were (falsely!) accused of doping, I suppose he may be more motivated.
1) Alex Vinokourov
2) Cadel Evans
3) Chris Moreau

Green jersey

Each year I look for a reason to pick against Robbie McEwen. That’s dumb.
1) McEwen
2) Tom Boonen
3) Thor Hushovd

And just for fun, I predict Iban Mayo will abandon the Tour on Stage 9.

And finally, DOPING
The worst thing about cycling is that it is being destroyed by doping and zealous doping controls. It’s so bad that I don’t know who won the 2006 Tour. Every competitor is now a suspect, not an athlete.

I equate doping with cheating. I want the cheats removed from the race, and I want them punished. I think all riders are full of chemicals, but some are banned and some aren't. Plus, I'm sure lots of them play dumb by taking treatment from trainers who conveniently don't disclose certain information (nod, wink). Defining doping is a huge problem. For example, think about the Vinokourov/Astana episode from last year, or notice I said Petacchi is out of this Tour for a doping investigation. He is accused of doping after a non-negative drug test in the Giro. He tested positive for a steroid—one that is common in asthma medication. I’m not convinced that he cheated, but that doesn’t matter, now, does it.

The doping police ought to think about a concept we have in America—innocent until proven guilty. Currently, it seems the opposite is the norm in cycling. Another issue is with the testing. Not all tests are equally reliable. A test for a drug that is not naturally found in a human body is one thing, but tests for normal human chemicals, (EPO, testosterone, or a hematocrit) are another matter. Sure, science can tell us what is normal for human biochemistry, but it is not inconceivable that a world class endurance athlete would produce these things in elevated amounts. Just how reliably accurate are these chemicals as indicators of unnatural conditioning (i.e. cheating)? I don’t know. I’d like to think that the doping authorities would have their act together on this, but I simply don’t have confidence in them. The administrators punish people not just based upon evidence, but also upon accusations. Then they break their own rules by leaking information or employing labs that don’t follow protocol. So, no, I don’t have much faith in the riders, and I don’t have much faith in the authorities either. Unlike the doping police, the Tour organizers, media, or Greg LeMond I don’t condemn the riders based upon suspicion or accusation. But the sport is destroying itself with corruption at all levels. To top it off, check out the statement that the UCI is forcing all TdF participants to sign.

"As proof of my commitment, I accept, if it should happen that I violate the rules and am granted a standard sanction of a two-year suspension or more, in the Puerto affair or in any other anti-doping proceedings, to pay the UCI, in addition to the standard sanctions, an amount equal to my annual salary for 2007 as a contribution to the fight against doping."

Of course, the standard sanctions simply means the status quo for doping penalties, and the riders are already bound by this. The change here is that the UCI is forcing the riders to pay their yearly salaries to the UCI if they are caught. What a great strategy for fund raising! Really, this statement is an attempt to save face and make people think the UCI is doing positive things to fight doping. It’s cosmetic and, predictably, ineffectual. But it may allow the UCI to have extra cash for its Christmas party budget.