Kill them all and let God sort them out.

I confess I was going to use that title regardless of the outcome of Stage 13, set in the city of Albi, as a reference to the papal suppression of the Albigensian heresy in the 13th century.

Today the slaughter was perpetrated by our old pal Al Vinokourov, who apparently, is not quite dead. But team Astana also slaughtered the field, taking 3 of the top 4 places.

Whereas most of the cyclists were cautious to avoid falling on the wet roads (Kloden, Kashechkin, Popovych, Gusev, and Cancellara did fall), Vino was aggressive all over the course and seemed immune to the conditions. Obviously, he took his frustrations of the last several days out on his competitors.

Michael Rasmussen had the best time trial of his life and managed to hold on to the yellow jersey, albeit now by only 1 minute over Cadel Evans.

Speaking of Evans, he had an awesome ride and it was well-planned, as he got faster at each time check. To a lesser degree, so did Levi Leipheimer, who rose from 21st at the first time check to 9th at the finish. But Leipheimer wasn't even the best on his team--Popovych and Contador each beat him by 20 seconds. This trio from Discovery Channel really had an excellent day, but Astana outclassed everyone.

Casualties? As expected Iban Mayo still sucks at the time trial (+6:04). Valverde (+6:08) and Moreau (+9:26) were unexpectedly crappy. Their chances for yellow are shot.

Overall standings after stage 13:
Rasmussen (Rabobank)
Evans (Lotto) +1:00
Contador (Disco) +2:31
Kloden (Astana) +2:34
Leipheimer (Disco) +3:37
Kashechkin (Astana) +4:23
Sastre (CSC) +4:45
Astarloza (Euskaltel) +5:07
Vinokourov (Astana) +5:10

Draw a line after the top 4. Those guys are the top tier contenders. All can climb, and all have done well in the time trial. Leipheimer is just behind them. He hasn't been as strong, but can challenge them if he has a great day or if they falter. The problem for him is that he does not have the impetus to attack. Kashechkin, Sastre, and Astarloza are second class contenders. And then we have the wild card, Vinokourov. He's still over 5 minutes back, which is a long way. Even if you assume Rasmussen's good TT was a fluke, he's still 4:10 behind Evans and over 2.5 minutes behind Kloden. However, his win today shows he still has fight, and he still has the ability to make up time. He can't make up the gap in one day, but he can get within striking range with one great day in the mountains. He'll have his chance in the next 3 stages. I figure for Vino to have a shot at winning, at the start of the final time trial he needs to be within 90 seconds of Evans and Kloden, within 3 minutes of the rest.

Rasmussen has weathered the first storm and is now back on his own turf for 3 stages. However, after the TT, he looked spent. He was wobbly and coughing up on the podium. I think he hurt himself today. How well can he recover? Another thing about him is that in previous years he has been able to rest in between mountain stages, but this year he's had to defend the lead all week instead of holding reserve to recover. That may take a little spark out of him in the Pyrenees. I'm being to critical, though. Rasmussen picked the right day to have the best TT of his life.

Stage 14 is a monster, with a finish on Plateau de Beille. The other 3 times a TdF stage ended there the winner of the stage won the Tour. Don't miss stage 14!

Here's a preview from Vinokourov, "What I can say now is that I will attack."

Well, that is what he does best.
Aside from Vino, be very afraid of Contador in the Pyrenees.

Odds & ends on the eve of the race of truth

I know all 7 of our regular readers have missed my commentary over the last couple days. Fortunately, my eye surgery went fine and I can watch the Tour again.

Tomorrow is the big showdown, as we finally have a time trial to shake up the favorites. I'm curious to see how well Valverde does. I don't think he's as weak as some of the other Spaniards are (e.g. Sastre, Mancebo, Mayo), but I also don't think he's of the same class as Kloden, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, or Evans.

In the last two days Boonen suffered a goose egg on one sprint, but fortunately for him, so did Zabel. Hunter took the points at the line, getting him back in the thick of things for the green jersey race. On the next day, Boonen struck back to pad his lead. He still has some room for error, but now he has two guys within reasonable striking range rather than just one.

Also, we may have an interesting race in the KoM for the first time in...in...well, I can't remember when. I don't know why Rasmussen didn't make an effort on the cat 2 climb on stage 12, but Soler and Popovych both did, so now they are within striking distance of Rasmussen to be King of the Mountains.

On stage 11 David Zabriskie was eliminated for being too slow. This is a huge loss for CSC. He's a threat to win the time trial, and they need him for the team competition. CSC actually took the lead over Banesto and Disco a few days ago, but CSC is now at a disadvantage because of attrition. Their 5 minute lead suddenly seems a lot smaller.

Stage 11: Who Needs A Team?

Today's lesson is the importance of a quality team.

Astana took advantage of the cross-winds and split the field. Their team is still one of the strongest in the field. They saw a weakness in the peloton and they exploited it.

Ag2r is not a strong team. So when that field split in two, they could not protect Moreau. Moreau has already been having a bad day, having had a minor crash and suffering some road burn. He spent the day in the back of the peloton, and he just couldn't react to the split. And his team was not strong enough to pull it back. And Moreau is probably done.

Then, sometimes a strong team doesn't matter. Quickstep is a pretty strong team on the sprints, and they led the peloton in the final few km, reeling in every break. And then they took a wide turn in the last kilometer and Boonen ends up crashing into a barrier. And it let Hunter back into the points race.

No one is going to confuse Barloworld with Team CSC, but they have done a good impression. Robbie Hunter took advantage of the crash and picked up 25 points on Boonen in the green jersey race, making himself a real contender. It's also the team's second stage win. And look where they are in the classifications:

Soler is 17th in the GC
Hunter is 2nd in points classification
Soler is 2nd in climbing classification
Soler is 3rd in the youth classification
Siutsou is 4th in the youth classification
OK, the team sits 16th in the team classification, but still...

Maybe you don't need to be a strong team to have a good Tour.

Stage 10: Jens Lets Us Down... Not Really

We make no secret of our man-crush on Jens Voigt. So, I'm a little bit ticked that Voigt didn't win that final sprint, and instead some stupid French guy took home the stage win (actually, Cedric Vasseur). Vasseur steals the glory which is rightfully Voigt's? Bastard!

I'm hoping when they crossed the line, after everyone rode Voigt's wheel for the last 2 km pretty much killing any chance he had of winning, Voigt turned to Vasseur and said something like this:

"Congratulations! Winning a stage in the Tour de France is almost as cool as wearing the yellow jersey! Oh, what? You've never done that? You really should. It's way cool. I mean, I've only worn it twice, but both times were really special.

Punk.

Don't ever ride my wheel like that again or I will gut you like a fish."

Some assorted Jens Voigt facts, which you may or may not know:

- When he rides, he hypes himself up by yelling "I'm freaking Jens Voigt!" Seriously.
- His bike doesn't move forward. He just pedals so hard, he stays in one place and the earth revolves underneath him. OK, I made that up. It just seems true.
- This is how big of a badass Voigt is: In 2004, he pulled up and let Ullrich pass him so he could let his captain Basso catch up. Then, he proceeded to catch Ullrich with Basso in tow. You do not fuck with Jens Voigt.
- He was taught to speak English by Australians. So he uses Australian slang. That makes him ten times cooler.
- He is the riders' representative on the UCI Council. So he's a badass off the course as well.


We love Voigt. I'm ticked he didn't win today's stage, but knowing Voigt... there's always tomorrow. Like he's ever going to stop attacking.

I pretend for a moment that I am a team manager

I'm going to usurp the role of team manager for several (but not all) teams in the Tour. Here's what I'd be saying at the team meeting.

AG2r

Chris Moreau is riding well and is in the yellow jersey hunt. A top 5 finish is possible, with luck, we’re looking at a podium finish. Moreau has shown the impetus to attack and the resilience to withstand attacks. Concurrently, Plan B is to send our other guys into breakaways to see if we can steal a stage win. No one is strong enough to help Moreau, so it’s no loss to him if we roll the dice on that.

CSC

Carlos Sastre has a fighting chance for the yellow jersey, but since he’s weak in the time trial, we’ve got to attack in the Pyrenees. Thanks to Cancellara our Tour is already a success, so let’s invest everything into Sastre. We’re only 5 minutes behind in the team competition, so the more we help Sastre, the better our chances. Zabriskie, if you goof off in every stage but avoid getting eliminated, that’s cool, so long as you bring your A-game for the time trial.

Also, we need a volunteer to ride a rusty mountain bike with training wheels through a mine field in Afghanistan. Any takers? I knew I could count on you, Jens.

Banesto

We’re in a great position. Valverde was super in the Alps, and he’s clearly our leader. Pereiro, Arroyo, and Karpets, you guys have been going strong too, which is why we’re in the lead on team time. Disco is only 6 seconds behind us, though, and they are a better at the time trial, so we’ve got to attack in the Pyrenees. This is our race to win. If you three set a fast tempo on the mountains, Valverde can bury those chumps and take the yellow jersey.

Telekom

There’s no way to sugar coat it—the last two stages were a disaster. If the Tour ended today, we could hold our heads up high thanks to Linus Gerdemann’s stage win, plus a day in yellow and two days in white. Now, he’s second in the white jersey, but he can’t climb with Contador. Just keep riding your own pace and hope he crashes. Somehow Kim Kirchen is in 10^th. You stay with the lead pack as long as you can, but we simply don’t have the personnel to attack. Just make sure all 6 of you get to Paris, and try to go an entire day without hitting another rider, a spectator, or an animal.

Rabobank

Menchov blew up today, so that makes things simple. We’re in this to get Rasmussen to Paris in yellow. Don’t think about the KoM—that will take care of itself. Everyone works to protect our yellow jersey. The time trial is a liability, so we have to attack at least 2 of the 3 days in the Pyrenees to hold a good lead. We’re going to push the tempo to weaken the field and then launch Rasmussen to attack at will.

Lotto

Cadel, you were a stud in the Alps. You attacked well, and you’re a better time trialist than everyone ahead of you. Rasmussen is keeping that yellow jersey warm for you. We’re really not equipped to defend the jersey, so it would be ideal if you got close in the first time trial, and then didn’t take it until maybe the last mountain stage or the second time trial. With McEwen out, we’ve only got one goal—getting that chickenlegged posuer out of the jersey that rightfully belongs to you.

Discovery

We have options out the wazoo. We’ve got two guys in contention for the yellow jersey, one of whom currently wears white with 3+ minutes to spare. Plus, we’re only 6 seconds off the lead in the team competition. Contador and Levi, keep doing what you are doing, and next week we’ll decide which one of you can win the yellow jersey. Popo is our secret weapon because he’s about the only domestique in the race who can ride ahead of the peloton all day and still be strong enough to be of use on the final climb. Let’s save Hincapie’s legs for the time trials—that’s where we’re going to win the team competition. We’ll beat Cassie d’Espana—or whatever Banesto calls themselves these days—into the pavement.

Quick Step

Boonen for green. Everyone got that? On the sprint stages we mark Zabel, Hushovd, and Hunter. We protect Tom from a crash. On the mountain stages we send everyone back to pace Tom to the finish line. We’re not going to let him get eliminated like McEwen. Let’s take that green jersey all the way to Paris.

Milram

Really, this couldn’t be better for us. McEwen and Freire are gone, and we have a good lead on Hushovd. The only problem is that Boonen has a 13 point lead on Zabel. In a head to head race, Boonen wins, so we’ve got to out-maneuver him in the bunch sprints. Erik’s main advantage is that he can climb. So, on the mountain stages, we’re going to look to take those intermediate sprint points that lie in between big climbs.

Saunier

Mayo is in third, which is as good as we could have hoped at this point. We’ve got nothing else going for us—yes, I know who you are David Millar, and I’m not about to hold my breath on you delivering a stage win, so shut up for a minute here. OK, fine, you think you have a chance in the time trial…whatever. The important thing is that Mayo has a chance for the podium. We’re headed to the Pyrenees—his backyard. When you see incline, you attack, got it.

Barloworld

Our tour is already a success after that stage win. Soler is less than 4 minutes behind Contador in the white jersey race, so let’s concentrate on that. On the sprints, let’s set up Hunter and see if he can get us another stage win. He’s been close before—so let’s get a second helping of podium girls.

Astana

Vinokourov, your whole career is cursed. I know it sucks, but someday, you’ll retire as one of the best TdF riders never to wear yellow. We still have plenty to fight for. Kloden is in good position for the yellow jersey, and he’s probably the best time trial rider of all the contenders. Kloden is now our #1 guy, and he’s going to win the Tour. We’re only 3 minutes out of the lead in the team competition, and that’s despite all of Vinokourov’s problems. We’re going to win that too, because when it comes to time trials, those other guys can’t hold your jocks. So, we’re riding for Kloden. As a booby prize, we’ll let Vino go solo for a stage win in the Pyrenees if the conditions are good.

Stage 9: A Crack At The Top

Barloworld earned their bid today. Actually, Barloworld had already earned their bid by being pretty competitive throughout the first week, and even having Robbie Hunter in green jersey contention. But today was the breakthrough day, as Juan Mauricio Soler held off the field and won Stage 9. That's a big deal.

An even bigger deal is that some GC contenders finally cracked today. Vino, Schleck, Zubeldia, Kashechin, Pereiro, and Menchov are stick-a-fork-in-them done. Vino et al each lost three minutes, while Menchov lost four. With this many GC contenders still in the hunt, that's just too many riders to overcome. We don't even have to wait for the time trial to sort CSC, Rabobank, and Astana out. The Alps did it for us. Sastre, Rasmussen, and Kloden (respectively) are now The Man on their teams.

Look at the top nine, the winner of this year's Tour is likely coming from this group:

1. RASMUSSEN Michael (RAB) ---
2. VALVERDE Alejandro (BAN) +2:35
3. MAYO Iban (SDV) +2:39
4. EVANS Cadel (LOT) +2:41
5. CONTADOR Alberto (DSC) +3:08
6. MOREAU Christophe (A2R) +3:18
7. SASTRE Carlos (CSC) +3:39
8. KLÖDEN Andréas (AST) +3:50
9. LEIPHEIMER Levi (DSC) +3:53

The real question is: how bad of a time trialist is Rasmussen? No one is going to confuse him with the Big Mig, but he does have an awfully big lead. There are still two ITT's left, as well as some big climbs. Do the negatives outweigh the positives? Can a climber win this thing? I'm skeptical, but he can make up for his predicted ITT losses in the Pyrenees.

Also, let's give some credit to Discovery, which ran this stage like the old Posties. They sent out an early break, cracked the field, and had their GC contenders reel everyone in on the chase up the final climb. Leipheimer didn't rise to the final chase, Contador did, and his teammate tried to carry him to the line. It was like watching the tactics of Lance without the power of Lance to just blow everyone off the course. But it did put two guys in the top ten. Contador looks like a budding star. This might not be his moment, but he looks stronger than Leipheimer right now.

Oh, on a final note. How bad T-Mobile's Tour is going summed up in one picture (courtesy of Velonews):


That's Marcus Burghardt crashing into a stray dog. I don't even know what to say about that.

Stage 8: These Are Some Bad Men

The first real day of big movers and shakers, so there’s a lot to talk about. I’m going to dispense with the recap: Rasmussen won by a lot. Vino cracked, but not that bad. Rasmussen has a lot of new laundry. OK, onto the analysis. And Jason's right, he left a lot for me to talk about.

RASMUSSEN
We used to constantly bitch about KoM points and their distribution, but Rasmussen has sort of made that argument moot. He really is the best climber, he wins by large margins, and he gets the dots. Is the system still flawed? Yes. But at least the right guy is winning it, so who cares that much?

He’s in yellow right now, but the chances of Rasmussen actually winning the Tour de France are quite low. He’s a notoriously poor time trialist, so for him to have any shot, he’d have to build an absurd lead in the mountains. I don’t see how anyone lets him do that. I think it’s great he’s in yellow and I would love to see climber win the whole race, but let’s be honest. He’s a longshot. Though he does have better odds than Linus Gerdemann.

AUSTRALIA
It wasn’t supposed to go like this. Rogers made a bold move early in the stage. What does he get for his trouble? A crash on the descent which forced him to withdraw. I hate when a guy gets punished for being aggressive. Rogers made a decisive move to put his stamp on this race, and bad luck thwarted him. T-Mobile’s great hope went up in smoke. (Though Jason is right, the move was still stupid. I don't care. There's no need to kick a country while they are down)

Australia’s day got worse when Stuart O’Grady would crash on the same descent as Rogers. Rogers would hang on for a little bit longer, so O’Grady officially pulld out first. Of course, O’Grady had five broken ribs so we can let that slide. This is a guy who finished last year’s race with a broken back, so no one doubts his toughness.

Finally, Robbie McEwen is out of the race. He didn’t crash, but he finished outside the time limit, so his green jersey defense is over. It looked doomed anyway, as he has not been the same rider since his crash. Yet another contender drops out for the sprinter’s title, so Boonen had a good day just by finishing.

Australia's hopes are now entirely on Cadel Evans.

MOREAU
Over the years, I’ve taken my fair share of potshots at Moreau. Hell, I’ve probably taken several other people’s fair share of potshots as well. So this is gonna hurt me when I say this:

Moreau had one hell of a ride today.

Rasmussen won the combative rider award for the stage, but I can make a case for Moreau. He was the one who finally attacked from the peloton to lead the chase. He led that chase group almost the entire time as every rider seemed to stalk him, so Moreau did what appeared to be his only option: he constantly attacked the group. He spent the entire final climb trying to crack a pretty loaded group of Mayo, Valverde, Schleck, Evans, Kashechkin, and Contador. All of those riders were within 30 seconds of each other in the GC, but all marked Moreau as the threat.

Quite a dubious honor. Contador lost the group due to a mechanical problem (a theme for Discovery today – so did Leipheimer) and Mayo would successfully attack in the last km, but the group finished mostly together. These were the GC contenders who rose to the challenge. They didn’t put too much time into Vino and the other contenders, but maybe this is a sign that they are the strongest of the contenders.

But of these seven men, Moreau looked the strongest.

ASTANA
Kloden rode dutifully for Vino. When Vino cracked on the last of the climb, Kloden sat up and waited for him, guiding his leader to the line. The move probably cost Kloden about 30 seconds in the GC, and he sits one minute behind the biggest contenders. Vino is a minute and half behind him. It’s not time to abandon his domestique duties, but a decision has to be made soon. Which one is stronger?

Or is it Kashechin, who was in the chase group and now is fifth overall? The team is still working well together, but hard decisions have to be made soon. When do they give up on Vino? It’s not that time yet, but we are getting there.

MAYO
One day surge or a return to his previous form? I have no earthly idea. But he’s now in third overall. Of course, even when he was on form, he was possibly an even worse time trialist than Rasmussen.

VALVERDE
Of the major contenders, Valverde's in front. Sort of. If we eliminate the top three (Rasmussen and Mayo because of their demonstrated ability to not be able to time trial, Gerdemann because he’s in over his head), look at what the “real” GC standings are. This is an incredibly close race even after two days of climbs:

Valverde (Banesto) ---
Kashechkin (Astana) +:01
Evans (Lotto) +:02
Moreau (Ag2r) +:15
Contador (Discovery) +:19
Schleck (CSC) +:23
Menchov (Rabobank) +:28
Sastre (CSC) +:44
Kloden (Astana) +:55
Leipheimer (Discovery) +1:02
Pereiro (Banesto) +1:03
Zubeldia (Euskatel) +1:09

That’s 12 major contenders all within about a minute. Anyone who says they know anything about this year’s Tour is lying. It is wide open.

JENS VOIGT
How much do we love this guy?

Overwhelmed by Stage 8

There are too many story lines from Stage 8, which means I can write a lot and leave plenty material for Stephen. Since it’s overwhelming, I’ll start with the simple stuff.

1) That was an awesome stage to watch. The first week of the Tour was really good, and it just got a lot better. Amazingly, the contenders are still close to one another despite all the carnage today.

2) Robbie McEwen was eliminated from the race because he finished too far behind the winner. Gone. Out. See you next year. Even though he was down 40 points, this is huge for Tom Boonen. The most dangerous man is gone. Having lost McEwen and Freire on consecutive days, Boonen can win the green jersey by playing defense. He just needs to mark Zabel, Hushovd, and Hunter.

3) While the contenders have been hesitant to take the race by the horns, Michael Rasmussen had no problem seizing the day. His acceleration up the last three mountains put everyone to shame. For the second consecutive day the hero gets a triple crown, for Rasmussen it’s a stage win, the yellow jersey, and the polka dot jersey.

4) Sylvain Chavanel looks lame. He wasn’t able to pretend as though he had any interest in the KoM today. At the start of the day he had a 20 point lead on Rasmussen; now he trails by 40. That’s what happens when you don’t lift a finger while the defending champ throws the gauntlet.

5) The day began with a big breakaway that included Michael Rogers. It was remarkably stupid, yet typical of Telekom to implement the worst possible strategy. Rogers wore himself out before the big mountains. When he crashed and sustained an injury that eventually forced him to abandon, it may have won him some sympathy, but even without the crash, he was doomed. Just how dumb is it to get into a breakaway a couple hours before hitting three big mountains? I’ll explain this so even the morons who run Telekom will understand. Of the 18 men in the breakaway only 1 finished within 10 minutes of Rasmussen. They all burned out. If Rogers hadn’t crashed, he would have finished, but lost so much time as to be out of contention.

6) The one member of the break who finished within 10 minutes of Rasmussen…Jens Voigt, naturally, at + 5:47.

7) Looking past Rasmussen, some riders looked great. First, congrats to Iban Mayo for having his first good TdF stage in 4 years. Cadel Evans and Chris Moreau led the charge out of the group of contenders, but the other guys with them never got organized to the point that they could put a lot of time on the riders that they dropped. As a result, they put less than 30 seconds on Sastre and Menchov, less than a minute on Leipheimer, and only 76 seconds on Vinokourov and Kloden.

8) Vinokourov owes Kloden a case of beer for pacing him up the mountain. Kloden looked very strong setting the pace for Vino. Clearly he sacrificed his own standing to help Vinokourov. I presume Astana isn’t going to pull the plug on Vino until after the first time trial, but his hole keeps getting deeper. Meanwhile, Andrey Kashechkin is now 5^th overall, nearly a minute ahead of Kloden and nearly 4 minutes ahead of Vinokourov. Vino had better have a very special time trial.

9) The time gaps in the GC are deceiving. Rasmussen has 3 minutes plus on all the pre-race favorites, but Rasmussen is one of the worst time trialists in the history of sports. Iban Mayo is also terrible. Linus Gerdemann sits in second, but this rookie is a sitting duck. So, the current top three is very vulnerable. Right now we know who has the lead, but I have no idea who has the best chance of winning.