Stage 20: D-Day

Thud.

This was the day Cadel Evans was supposed to dominate. He hung on the mountain, stayed within striking distance of the Yellow Jersey, all so he could crush the field in the final ITT. This was the plan against Contador last year, but he ultimately fell short.

Thud.

He fell short again. This wasn't that Evans rode a poor time trial. He didn't have an epic ride, but he was top ten. He put time into all of the top riders except VandeVelde, who has to think that if he doesn't crash on the descent on stage 16, he's not just standing on the podium, but standing on the podium in Yellow. But Evans did ride a good to very good time trial. But Sastre rode the time trial of his life.

Something happens to riders when they put on that jersey. They find something extra, and they will do almost anything to protect the honor. It's why everyone still likes Thomas Voeckler. Carlos Sastre, who has spent so much of his career coming up just short, didn't want to be the bridesmaid again. So he dug deep inside of himself and busted out a time trial that, frankly, no one thought he had in him. He lost less than 30 seconds to Evans. He overtook Schleck in the final few km. He won so comfortably, he was even able to pull up in the final sprint. Sastre won this through the inspiration of wearing Yellow.

I don't want to pile on Evans. He's going to finish in his second straight Tour de France and he's obviously a gifted rider. He didn't lose this race so much as Sastre won it. Sastre attacked on Alpe d'Huez and followed it up with the greatest time trial of his career. Sometimes you just have to shake your head and congratulate the other guy for his effort. But the contrast between the two is fairly apparent.

Sastre attacked. Evans defended and had others attack him. Sastre's team was absolutely brilliant, as members gave up individual goals in pursuit of the team goal (and still ended up with an impressive haul). Evans' team gave him no support, and he even publicly wished for McEwen not to be there to contest the sprints. Sastre embraced the Yellow Jersey. Evans wore it like a millstone and couldn't wait to get out of it. Sastre only worried about the moment. Evans seemed to try to win the whole Tour every day. The pressure beat him down.

Attacking cycling won the day. A great team with a perfectly executed plan won. These are good things for cycling. I didn't want to see someone win the Tour by not attacking and just waiting for the time trial. But I still feel bad for Evans. He rode a tough, gritty race against what seemed like the entire peloton. Everyone was against him it seemed, and he still almost managed to win. He's a terrific competitor and while I was rooting for Sastre, I do feel like Evans would have been a worthy champion. And I don't enjoy his disappointment.

The Calm

Today was a little bit of a yawner of a stage. The Green Jersey is all but wrapped up, and the Yellow is going to be decided in tomorrow’s time trial, so really, there wasn’t a whole lot at stake today. The sprinters can’t really make an impact anymore and the GC guys are taking a break.

Which made today perfect for a breakaway. We make fun of the French quite a bit mainly because, well, they stink and it is kind of funny. Italians dominate the Giro, Spaniards kick ass in the Veulta, and the French get punked in the Tour. It’s just not fair. There’s only four French riders within an hour of the lead, and the highest placed Frenchman is in 14th (Sandy Casar).

So it’s nice when the hometown fans have something to cheer about. Today belongs to Sylvain Chavanel. I like Chavanel and he’s always thrown himself into the Tour, recklessly attacking to try and get a stage win. He’s been criticized by no less an authority than Bernard Hinault, but then again, Hinault doesn’t like anybody. So congrats to Chavanel. It’s your day.

Huez

Well, Jason is off on a cross-country voyage, leaving me to run the blog, but I had this whole work thing prevented a prompt update.

After spending a good portion of this year’s tour being very, very wrong, I’m feeling like I was right yesterday. Cadel Evans had a hug ride on Stage 16, which put time into his fellow time trialists, but he stayed even with the climbers, who needed to put in time. It meant everybody had to attack today except Evans, which pretty much plays into his hands. Evans may not be an aggressive rider, and I may think he’s boring as hell, but he’s a tough man to shake. He just had to stay in contact today.

So, everyone reached Huez today and proceeded to attack the crap out of each other, and Cadel hung on for dear life. We’ll get to Sastre and Team CSC in just a second, but I have to lead with Cadel again. He didn’t let anyone else breakway, he even put a little bit of time into Menchov, and he did it entirely on his own. Evans finally attacked when Sastre’s break reached two minutes, just to minimize the damage. And no one helped him. Why should they? Sastre is a far superior climber, but Evans held the gap over the last few kilometers, dragging the yellow jersey group up the mountain. He was able to do that today because of his ride yesterday. If he wins the Yellow Jersey, it’ll be because of his great Stage 16 and minimizing the damage here on Huez. Just two absolutely brilliant days from Evans. And that hurts for me to say.

So let’s say great things about Sastre and CSC.

Sastre has a 1:34 lead on Evans. It’s an open question whether he can stay within 1:34 of Evans on the ITT, but it is within the realm of possibility. He’s got a shot if he rides the best ITT of his career. No pressure, Carlos. And don’t worry about those other guys still within striking distance as well. But if he wins the Yellow Jersey, it will be because of his work today. Or namely, CSC’s work.

They were awesome today. Just like they have been all Tour. CSC blew apart the peloton, and then guided their GC man to the top. Andy Schleck especially has been a workhorse, and he’ll probably be rewarded with a White Jersey. He looks like a future champion, and given his earlier low placement, it begs the question: is CSC just lucky he was so far back and was able to set such a pace because he wasn’t a GC threat or was his low placement an intentional tactic? Either CSC is great at making lemonade out of lemons or they are friggin’ geniuses.

And how about sending Sastre back to go get water? Was that the feint to make everyone think they were riding for Frank Schleck? Or were they actually riding for Schleck and Sastre’s attack just happened to be the one that worked. Who knows? But once again, either CSC is good at taking advantage of whatever comes their way or they are tactical geniuses. Probably somewhere in between. But CSC has made their own luck. They have dominated this race, and they deserve to win it.

But life isn’t fair. Sastre still needs to have the time trial of his life. Or else all of that work was just delaying the coronation of Cadel Evans.

Stage 16: Evans Looks Good

I've made no secret I've been rooting against Cadel Evans. but it really felt like he won the Tour de France today. OK, this could look real stupid by the time the riders crest Alpe d'Huez tomorrow, but Evans put time in to two riders today: the two guys who had a shot at beating him in a time trial. This was a huge day. Evans doesn't need to blow Sastre or Kohl off the road, he just has to beat them in the ITT, which he is likely to do. The two guys he had to worry about were Menchov and Vande Velde. Both lost time today.

So all Cadel has to do is do what he's best at: hang with the group tomorrow, don't attack, manage the attacks that do happen, and then win this on a time trial. It really has all gone according to plan. I don't like the plan, but it has been effective. And the name of the game isn't style, it's winning. Or else we'd just give the Yellow Jersey to Jens Voigt.

When Evans was weak, his rivals couldn't put him away. When he crashed so badly, he gave the reporters his dented helmet, he didn't lose any significant time. When he struggled on Stage 15, he minimized his time losses. And now, after looking like the weakest guy in the top group, he is sitting as pretty as anyone can be in a race that is within a minute. Give the guy credit, he has earned this advantage. As much as it hurts me to say, I think he is riding a tough, gritty race.

One and a half casualties

Since Stage 16 had a downhill finish and is a day before Alpe d'Huez, the contenders weren't going to got for the kill. But that is quite a different thing from applying pressure to see if anyone is weak. Of the top 6, Christian VandeVelde finally showed weakness and was dropped on the last climb. Apparently he crashed on the decent too, and by the end of the day, it cost him 2:36. He's not dead & buried, but now that he's over 3 minutes off the lead, his chances of winning the Tour are slim to none.

The half a casualty was Menchov. He lost half a minute on the decent and is now at +1:13. Yeah, he's still close enough to win the Tour tomorrow, but that 30 seconds just made it a lot harder in a close race. Considering that Sastre still couldn't put time on the other contenders, he's still in a bit of a hole, so it's advantage to Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, and Bernie Kohl.

Kohl, by the way, has managed to hang on to the KoM lead, despite being tied down to the yellow jersey group. Gerolsteiner helped him a lot by sending Schumacher to take points on the first climb.

Aside from the yellow jersey race, the white jersey race is getting really cool now. Andy Schleck has re-taken the lead because he's been at the front setting the pace for CSC day after day. He can't help but take the lead since his job is to set a pace that drops guys off the back. The two Liquigas guys, Nibali and Kreutzinger, are within a minute of his lead, and Monfort is only 2:18 back, so that race will be up for grabs on Alpe d'Huez too.

I still think Lotto is playing bad tactics by wasting Popovych. Sending him in an all day breakaway in the mountains only helps if he comes back to Evans once the race heats up. Well, that never happened, and Popovych didn't even win the stage, so his effort gained nothing and he got tired again. Think about that tomorrow when CSC drops him half way up the Alp.

And I've got to mention the crash by the Barloworld guy. That team's Tour has been a disaster, but John Augustyn won them 5000 euros by being the first guy over the highest peak in the Tour. He promptly crashed on the decent, and it was pretty awesome to watch. He need a spectator to help him climb up the slope back to the road, but his bike kept sliding down the mountain. I don't know if he ever got it back. He had to stand there and wait for the team car. At least he got 5ooo euros for his trouble.

Alps + rain = fun stage to watch

What’s better than having the top two guys separated by 1 second? How about the top 3 separated by 8 seconds? Even better, the top 6 are separated by only 49 seconds.

Just as in stage 10, CSC took control of the peloton and dismantled the other teams so that all the contenders were isolated from their teammates. And again, the contenders threw several attacks at each other, but most were quickly contained. For a while Carlos Sastre looked like he would be dropped, but he's the one that started the attack that actually split the group in the last 3 km. Bernie Kohl, Menchov, and Valverde followed, and gained a few seconds over Cadel Evans. Frank Schleck and VandeVelde didn't drop Evans until the last 500 m, leaving us with this leaderboard.

1. Frank Schleck
2. Kohl +0:07
3. Evans +0:08
4. Menchov +0:38
5. VandeVelde +0:39
6. Sastre +0:49

Essentially, these guys are tied, except for Sastre, who sucks at the time trial and needs about 2 minutes on all of them.

What we're waiting for in the next couple stages is for someone to take command and open a gap of minutes, not seconds. Kohl, VandeVelde, and Menchov never looked weak at any point today. Evans did, and Schleck did briefly, but recovered. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tactics: I don't understand Lotto's decisions. Popovych is the only domestique on that team who can be relied on in the mountains, yet they wasted him chasing down the breakaway in the valley. By the time he was needed to protect Evans, he was already spent.

By the way, Andy Schleck was awesome today. At least twice he was dropped by attacks and then worked his way back to the front to set the pace for Sastre & Frank Schleck again. He's got guts!