Saturday, July 04, 2009

Stage One: Contador Lays Down the Law

Well, the story going into the Tour was whether Contador could trust his own team and whether the team will fracture in support of Lance instead. But Contador will control Astana as long as he is viewed as their best chance to win.

Mission accomplished. Astana had an awesome day in which four of their riders finished in the top ten, all of which are real contenders. But the name on top is Contador. He asserted himself as team captain, so for one day at least, Team Astana is Team Contador. Well done.

The other story is that we have often stated that no one can win the Tour in the first week, but it can be lost. Denis Menchov came into today as one of the primary contenders for the yellow jersey. He's not dead yet or anything, but he lost one minute and a half today, the only contender to lose so much time. It was not a good day for the Russian. Noted poor time trialist Carlos Sastre only lost a little over a minute. It was a bad day for Menchov, making it an even better day for Astana.

Astana and Picks

Armstrong and Contador. The current great versus one of the greatest of all time. Now, technically, Lance is going to ride for Contador as his lieutenant, but I don’t think anyone seriously believes that. Lance will ride for Contador the same way Hinault rode for LeMond.

One of Lance’s great strengths was his team. The Posties were just a well-organized machine in which every cog worked for the ultimate goal of the machine: yellow for Lance. Armstrong continually beat the star-studded, but horribly fractured Telekom team.

And now Armstrong has joined the equivalent of Telekom. Forget the two-headed beast at the top for a second. That can be a virtue. In addition, Kolden and Leipheimer have both finished on the podium. If the team fractures, what is to prevent them striving for their own ambitions? I wouldn’t worry too much about domestiques Popovych and Zubeldia, who are both incredibly taltented riders who both know they aren’t serious contenders. The open question is, who do they ride for?

Bruyneel has a well-deserved reputation has a master strategist and tactician. He won’t let a team fracture against itself. Then again, he made his bones as Lance’s right hand, so I am curious how easily he can shut down Lance. Or if he’ll even want to, if Lance makes a big break.

This is a team so good they could put three men on the podium. This is, quite frankly, the most absurdly talented team I have ever seen. They just have to ride as a unit. I do think it will come down to a showdown on the final day between Lance and Contador, which seems pretty cool. Because right now, it looks like the only way the other teams can compete is if this team does its best T-Mobile impression.

THE PICKS
1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Kloden

Friday, July 03, 2009

Team Preveiws (Minus One)

With Jason on vacation as the Tour starts, it’s up to me to write misinformed team previews. Here, I’ll preview every team except Astana, which let’s face it, deserves its own entry because it has the most fascinating team dynamic in the Tour. So here’s everyone else:

AG2R
We make fun of the French teams for having no ostensible purpose in the Tour. But can you believe that Ag2r actually had two riders in the top ten last year? And, being Ag2R, only one of them (Efimkin) will be starting the race this year? And that they still insist Dessel is the team leader? Awesome.

AGRIBUTEL
Feillu once wore the yellow jersey… er, Calzati has won a stage, and, um… you see… Christophe Moreau! Moreau is probably the most mockable of all French riders, but then again, he’s married to a podium girl, so I’m pretty sure he’s having the last laugh.

BBOX (BOGUS TELECOM)
They only exists so Thomas Voeckler can make some ill-adivsed early run at yellow jersey and then eventually finish 80th in the overall GC.

CAISSE D’EPARGNE
With Valverde skipping the Tour, the team leader duties fall to Oscar Pereiro who is kinda sorta a former Tour winner. It’s a strong, deep team that really won’t win anything. They specialize in having good, solid Tours in which they took home no hardware. Pereiro will finish top ten, but there’s little chance he will make the podium.

CERVELO
Carlos Sastre is the defending champ yet he’s no one’s pick to win this time. Sastre specializes in being the last guy standing when other rider’s choke away the race (READ: Cadel Evans). That’s a viable strategy again because there’s a 50-50 chance Astana implodes and Sastre could be the last guy standing. Again. Oh, yeah… THOR!

COFIDIS
Chavanel left the team and it was a major blow. Re-read that sentence and realize how much trouble this team is in.

TEAM COLUMBIA
Remember when Versus pumped up Hincapie as a contender? That was cute, wasn’t it? Kirchen also has an outside shot at the podium, but he’ll probably be a nice top ten guy. Rogers is being hyped as potential winner, but I’m not really buying. However, the team’s real goal is the green. Cavendish dominated the early stages of last year’s Tour before dropping out for the Olympics. He’s an overwhelming favorite and I’ll make the pick now: if Cavendish finishes, he’ll be wearing green. I can’t believe I’m picking a Brit, which goes against all of my instincts.

EUSKALTEL
Sanchez gave the orange boys their best finish in a long, long time and he’s back to contend for dots and maybe finish in the top ten again. A few years ago, this was a real interesting team, now they are the Basque answer to Ag2r.

FDJ
Of all the non-competitive French teams, and they are legion, I’ve always had a soft spot for FDJ. Sure, they won’t win anything, but they at least make the race as exciting as they can by striving for whatever low hanging fruit they can grab.

GARMIN
They wear argyle and are sponsored by Chipotle burritos. How can I not root for these guys? (I ignore the presence of David Millar) Vande Velde finished fourth last year in one of the most unbelievable results in recent memory. It won’t happen again, but the interest rider is Tyler Farrar, who has actually gone toe to toe with Cavendish. He’s a nice dark horse pick. Which is nice way of saying it’s highly unlikely he’ll win.

KATUSHA
McEwen and Steegsman. That’s a pretty impressive sprinters team, though McEwen is pretty far past his prime. This is actually a pretty good all around team, though they won’t contend in the GC.

LAMPRE
Imagine of Cunego actually took the Tour seriously. This is a powerful team that is simply just showing up to be nice.

LIQUIGAS
Basso is still not on the Tour lineup, so the goal is now for Bennati to win the green. He’s the biggest threat to Cavendish, but he’s only won one stage in two Tours, so I’m not going all in on him. But I hope it’s a war between the two (with Friere and THOR! trying to steal points on the fringe)

MILRAM
Ciolek is no Zabel. Keep that in mind.

QUICKSTEP
Tom Boonen is back! He won the appeal yesterday so he’s now on the start list, so everyone’s favorite coke addict is ready to compete for the green. How is that not a performance enhancing drug for a sprinter?

RABOBANK
Menchov is probably the top contender not riding for Astana. He needs to be able to able to simply hang on in the mountains and try to win this in a time trial. He lacks great support, which could doom his chances, but Rabobank is a team that always raises its game. And Freire is another green jersey threat.

TEAM SAXO
Who doesn’t like the Schleck brothers? Even more importantly, who doesn’t love Jens Voigt? Sastre’s off the team, which is really no way to treat the defending champ, but they are moving forward with the Schlecks as their best hope to win another yellow. I refuse to count out Andy, who now has experience and has the most insane rider on earth and his brother as domestiques.

SILENCE-LOTTO
Another weak team with a powerful team leader. Last year was Cadel Evans’ big chance, and he finished second. Again. Now, with the return of Lance and Contador, Evans is sort of an afterthought. This might suit him well. I’ve spent years picking against Evans, but I actually feel really good about his chances this year. Once again, dependant on Astana collapsing.

SKIL-SHIMANO
It’s their first Tour and the team is sponsored by chainsaws. That can’t bode well.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

I'm picking Armstrong to win again

I know the oddsmakers say bet on Contador, and he's got a great chance to win. You can accuse me of being a homer and picking Armstrong. There must be some truth to that, but I've got good reasons to think that the old guy who was retired for 3 years is going to beat the much younger guy who is probably the best grand tour racer in cycling.

First, we're not dealing with your average returning-from-retirement athlete. We're talking about a guy who dominated this event for 7 straight years. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, each of the last three years I have watched the TdF and said, the winner was great, but Lance would have beaten the snot out of him if he hadn't retired. In 2006 it was Landis and Pererio, neither ever was a threat to Lance. In 2008 it was Carlos Sastre, who is an awesome climber and put together the time trial of his life, but was also beaten like a drum by Armstrong for several years. Of course, in 2007 Contador won the whole thing. Even then, I didn't think his win was in the same league as Lance. He beat Evans and Leipheimer by less than a minute--Lance always had a bigger margin. And let's not forget that Contador inherited the yellow jersey because the race leader was yanked by his team for giving bogus information about his whereabouts to the dope police. Does anyone remember that guy's name? It was Michael Rasmussen. He beat Contador repeatedly in the mountains and had lead of a few minutes before Rabobank pulled the plug on him. Anyone thing Rasmussen was better than Armstrong? Nope. Lance mopped the floor with the recent Tour champs and Contador's closest competition. At least, Lance mopped the floor with them a few years ago. Yeah, there's no way he's the same quality rider at 38, but how much has he lost? In 2005 he was miles ahead of his competitors. He could have lost a lot of his ability and still be better than everyone else.

The third reason to be skeptical of Contador beating Lance is that Contador lacks something very important--he lacks a team that is dedicated to his beating Lance Armstrong. Astana is never going to start a stage with the strategy of putting time on Lance (obviously they same is true for Contador). Obviously, they'll be trying to put time on each other in the individual time trials. Contador isn't a bad time trial rider. In fact he's the newly crowned Spanish ITT champ--not that Spain is known for having good time trialists, though. He won the Spanish ITT race last week with a speed of about 44 kph. That's about the same speed Lance had in the ITT in the Tour of California last February--he's gotten better since then. In fact, when Lance was at his best in the Tour he'd average more like 50 kph in ITTs. Contador has no advantage here. I'm not sure if Lance has one here. That leaves the mountains to settle the race. I don't know who will be stronger. It's hard for me to fathom someone beating Armstrong multiple times in the mountains. Maybe Contador will prove me wrong. Until then, I'll stick with the guy who owns the Tour. In 3 weeks you can find out how wrong I am.

Monday, June 29, 2009

The 2009 course


I think Poseur always groans when I lead off Tour previews with a look at the course. Too bad, this stuff is important. This course is really, really interesting, and I like it a lot.

Highlights:
A team time trial.
Seven mountain stages; eight if you count stage 13.
No prologue, but two individual time trials.
The penultimate stage is Mt. Ventoux.



That last one is totally awesome and changes the dynamic of the race, as we’re really accustomed to the last showdown being a time trial, not a climb. Ventoux is no ordinary climb, and putting it at stage 20 is torture. We often say a 60-90 second lead is what the leader needs as a good cushion heading into the final time trial. For Mt. Ventoux a 4 minute lead is no guarantee.

That said, while it looks like a very mountain-heavy Tour, the mountains won’t dominate as much as it seems (except Ventoux at stage 20). Of the remaining mountain stages, only two actually (stages 7 & 15) end on a mountain top. The others have a lot of km between the last climb and the finish, so the effect of the climb may be muted. The days following stage 15 will be interesting. Stage 15 is the first day in the Alps, and has a mountain finish. The next day is a day off. Stage 16 has two colossal climbs followed by a technical 30 km descent with hairpin turns out the wazoo. Stage 17 is similar, only the descent isn’t as long or twisted. While stage 15 may separate the contenders, stages 16 & 17 aren’t likely to do so, despite 6 category big climbs. That’s right—in 5 days they go Alps, day off, Alps, Alps, time trial. A schedule like that makes the challenge more than the sum of its parts. Stages 18 & 17 will leave everyone FUBAR for the time trial on the next day. The stage 18 time trial course makes a circuit around a lake that is in Alp foothill country. It’s flat, except for a category 3 climb three-quarters of the way through, but the wind could be a huge factor on the course. Then there is Ventoux.

And before all that stuff happens, there are a couple key dates in week 1. Stage 7 ends with a big climb in the Pyrenees. Stage 1 could be big too. Instead of having a prologue, stage 1 is a 15 km time trial in Monaco, but the course is treacherous with a ton of turns. I’ll be surprised if all the cyclists make it to the finish—someone is going to break a collar bone on day one.

Truth in advertising

This blog is called The Grand Tours, but we haven't posted on it since last July, which means we totally neglected two of the three Grand Tours. To maintain our blogging credentials, I'll say this...

Bert Contador won the Vuelta last September, putting him in elite company as a winner of each Grand Tour. He's the first to win all 3 since Bernard Hinault and only the 5th all time.

Denis Menchov won the Giro in May. He's won two of the three Grand Tours, and needs the Tour to complete the Triple Crown.

Both will be on the starting line Saturday.

There, we covered the Vuelta and Giro. Our Tour coverage will be more extensive.
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