Window dressing is over
After stage 8 I said the score was Schleck 1, Contador 0. On stage 12 Contador evened the score by picking up a modest 10 seconds on a short but steep finish. In neither case was the damage severe, but each guy can damage the other, so we could be in for a very exciting 4 days in the Pyrenees. Well, unless someone wins by 4 minutes on Sunday
Meanwhile, less than 3 minutes separate 9 cyclists fighting for third place, so that race could be even more exciting. (I suppose Schleck or Contador could pop and fall off the map, but that's unlikely. I suppose one of those guys positioned 3 through 11 could have a stunning day and drop both Contador and Schleck, but that's even more unlikely.
With four days in the mountains to settle a 31 second margin, the difference between Schleck and Contador could come down to their teams. Astana's guys did better than I thought in the Alps, but I wonder if they may run out of gas this week. On the other hand, Saxo Bank has the best team in the race, and we already know they can whittle down the field and send a guy ahead on the breakaway to come back to Schleck when everything hits the fan on the final climb. We've seen their tactics, and they work well. Not having Frank Schleck hurts, but I don't see that being Andy's downfall if he can't hold off Contador. Ultimately, he's going to have to drop Contador himself and defend his lead against Contador when he decided to sprint uphill. Schleck's advantage is that his team can overpower Astana and minimize the window of opportunity for Contador to strike.
While there is a two man race for yellow, there is a two team race for the team competition. RadioShack and Banesto are separated by a measly 21 seconds. The unsung hero here is Chris Horner, who has been finishing solidly third behind Leipheimer and Kloden while Armstrong feels old a few minutes back. RadioShack has the advantage here because they will blow Banesto away on the time trial, but in the mountains they have a pretty good formula. Leipheimer will take care of his own time just by fighting for a podium spot. Two of the three of Kloden, Armstrong, and Horner have to finish ahead of or with Banesto's top three. They can even alternate who hustles to be the third finisher and who saves energy for the next day. Paulinho and Popovych can follow any Banesto guys who get into a breakaway.
As for the green jersey, THOR! must pick up sprint points on mountain stages, because he simply cannot hang with Petacchi and Cavendish in the bunch sprint. It's one thing to finish right behind them; it's quite another to finish 5+ places behind and lose 10+ points. Unless THOR! picks up more points in the mountains, he will not overcome Petacchi's two point lead, and Cavendish might catch him despite being 23 points behind THOR!
Meanwhile, less than 3 minutes separate 9 cyclists fighting for third place, so that race could be even more exciting. (I suppose Schleck or Contador could pop and fall off the map, but that's unlikely. I suppose one of those guys positioned 3 through 11 could have a stunning day and drop both Contador and Schleck, but that's even more unlikely.
With four days in the mountains to settle a 31 second margin, the difference between Schleck and Contador could come down to their teams. Astana's guys did better than I thought in the Alps, but I wonder if they may run out of gas this week. On the other hand, Saxo Bank has the best team in the race, and we already know they can whittle down the field and send a guy ahead on the breakaway to come back to Schleck when everything hits the fan on the final climb. We've seen their tactics, and they work well. Not having Frank Schleck hurts, but I don't see that being Andy's downfall if he can't hold off Contador. Ultimately, he's going to have to drop Contador himself and defend his lead against Contador when he decided to sprint uphill. Schleck's advantage is that his team can overpower Astana and minimize the window of opportunity for Contador to strike.
While there is a two man race for yellow, there is a two team race for the team competition. RadioShack and Banesto are separated by a measly 21 seconds. The unsung hero here is Chris Horner, who has been finishing solidly third behind Leipheimer and Kloden while Armstrong feels old a few minutes back. RadioShack has the advantage here because they will blow Banesto away on the time trial, but in the mountains they have a pretty good formula. Leipheimer will take care of his own time just by fighting for a podium spot. Two of the three of Kloden, Armstrong, and Horner have to finish ahead of or with Banesto's top three. They can even alternate who hustles to be the third finisher and who saves energy for the next day. Paulinho and Popovych can follow any Banesto guys who get into a breakaway.
As for the green jersey, THOR! must pick up sprint points on mountain stages, because he simply cannot hang with Petacchi and Cavendish in the bunch sprint. It's one thing to finish right behind them; it's quite another to finish 5+ places behind and lose 10+ points. Unless THOR! picks up more points in the mountains, he will not overcome Petacchi's two point lead, and Cavendish might catch him despite being 23 points behind THOR!
posted by uberschuck at 8:47 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home