Window dressing is over

After stage 8 I said the score was Schleck 1, Contador 0. On stage 12 Contador evened the score by picking up a modest 10 seconds on a short but steep finish. In neither case was the damage severe, but each guy can damage the other, so we could be in for a very exciting 4 days in the Pyrenees. Well, unless someone wins by 4 minutes on Sunday
Meanwhile, less than 3 minutes separate 9 cyclists fighting for third place, so that race could be even more exciting. (I suppose Schleck or Contador could pop and fall off the map, but that's unlikely. I suppose one of those guys positioned 3 through 11 could have a stunning day and drop both Contador and Schleck, but that's even more unlikely.

With four days in the mountains to settle a 31 second margin, the difference between Schleck and Contador could come down to their teams. Astana's guys did better than I thought in the Alps, but I wonder if they may run out of gas this week. On the other hand, Saxo Bank has the best team in the race, and we already know they can whittle down the field and send a guy ahead on the breakaway to come back to Schleck when everything hits the fan on the final climb. We've seen their tactics, and they work well. Not having Frank Schleck hurts, but I don't see that being Andy's downfall if he can't hold off Contador. Ultimately, he's going to have to drop Contador himself and defend his lead against Contador when he decided to sprint uphill. Schleck's advantage is that his team can overpower Astana and minimize the window of opportunity for Contador to strike.

While there is a two man race for yellow, there is a two team race for the team competition. RadioShack and Banesto are separated by a measly 21 seconds. The unsung hero here is Chris Horner, who has been finishing solidly third behind Leipheimer and Kloden while Armstrong feels old a few minutes back. RadioShack has the advantage here because they will blow Banesto away on the time trial, but in the mountains they have a pretty good formula. Leipheimer will take care of his own time just by fighting for a podium spot. Two of the three of Kloden, Armstrong, and Horner have to finish ahead of or with Banesto's top three. They can even alternate who hustles to be the third finisher and who saves energy for the next day. Paulinho and Popovych can follow any Banesto guys who get into a breakaway.

As for the green jersey, THOR! must pick up sprint points on mountain stages, because he simply cannot hang with Petacchi and Cavendish in the bunch sprint. It's one thing to finish right behind them; it's quite another to finish 5+ places behind and lose 10+ points. Unless THOR! picks up more points in the mountains, he will not overcome Petacchi's two point lead, and Cavendish might catch him despite being 23 points behind THOR!

Three stages, three jerseys* change hands

Sometimes it pays to be lazy. On Tuesday I thought about writing an I-told-you-so piece on the demise of Cadel Evans. That was before I found out he was racing with a broken elbow. So, while I still think he's not a strong enough climber to win the Tour, he's gone from goat to Iron Man with that revelation. While I'll criticize a guy for not living up to the hype, I'll also commend him for struggling against adversity. Years ago Petacchi abandoned while wearing the green jersey because they were approaching the mountains, which is just sissified; what Evans did is the opposite. Three cheers for Cadel Evans.

Speaking of Petacchi in green, he's finally caught and passed THOR! and he even intends to make it all the way to Paris. That's the sort of thing I'll believe only after seeing it, given his track record and the thought of 4 mountain stages upcoming. It's only a 4 point gap, but THOR! has got to do better at the finish line. THOR! has won the green jersey without winning a stage before, and he does it by consistently finishing in the top 5 and picking up points in the mountains. Well, he's dropping further down the pack at the finishing line, and Petacchi managed to pick up a few points on the mountain stages too. So, THOR! has got to pick up his game, because assuming Petacchi will drop out may be wise, but it's no substitute for a real strategy.

And that leads me to the disqualification of Mark Renshaw following the sprint finish of stage 11. When I saw it live, I thought for sure Renshaw would get relegated to last place for headbutting another cyclist and drifting into someone else's line. That was real crummy and dangerous--a real no brainer to relegate his finish. I didn't expect he'd be thrown out of the Tour. Then again, relegating a lead out guy who fades away and picks up no points isn't much of a punishment to HTC Columbia or Marc Cavendish. Booting Renshaw out of the race is a big deal. I think it may be overkill, but then, what punishment between those two extremes would be appropriate? In any event, we're about to see how important Renshaw's lead out is to Cavendish's success.

*Well, Pineau lost the KoM and got it back, so there were 4 changes of jerseys, but, then again, only two.

The headline from Stage 8

Since I don't work for Vs., I don't have to write about Lance Armstrong's tragic day. The real headline was that Andy Schleck made an attach that Contador could not answer. Last year there were a couple dozen attacks from the Schlecks, and Contador covered them all. This year he's 0 for 1.

It ended up being only a 10 second gain over Contador, et al., but the psychological impact is much greater. And while Cadel Evans picked up the yellow jersey, I don't expect him to keep it because he got dropped off the Contador group as they tried unsuccessfully to respond to Schleck (i.e. Evans is still the weakest climber of the contenders).

The gap between Schleck and Contador is by no means large--just 20 seconds, but now we've seen Schleck do something we've never seen before. For the rest of this race, even if Contador has a great day and takes a minute over Schleck, he's going to have to worry about Andy doing it again.

I made a point about Astana's domestiques working like mad on Stage 7. To my surprise they did even better on stage 8, but for what reason. They don't have a jersey to defend, but they are burning themselves up to break the peloton. If they do get the yellow jersey they may be spent and unable to defend. The only way I can figure this makes sense is if they know Contador is not on form and their acting the part of Tour boss in order to discourage attacks.

I think it's more likely that the team just has a bad game plan.